Is Tesla’s Humanoid Robot the Key to $20 Trillion?

Tesla’s stock climbed on Monday as Elon Musk continued to emphasize the potential value of the company’s humanoid robots. Musk shared on X that Tesla plans to have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for internal use next year, with hopes for high production for other companies by 2026.

During Tesla’s annual meeting in April, Musk explained that the Optimus robots would enter limited production by 2025, with over 1,000 units operational by the end of that year. Currently, two robots are on the factory floor, although the specific tasks they perform have not been disclosed.

Musk previously suggested that the robots could potentially add $20 trillion to Tesla’s market valuation, with expectations for retail sales to begin in late 2025, priced between $20,000 and $30,000.

However, the exact nature of Musk’s claim about the robots being “genuinely useful” is unclear. Past demonstrations have faced criticism; for instance, a recent video showed an Optimus folding a shirt, which some alleged was manipulated by an off-screen operator.

Tesla’s previous presentations of the robots have also drawn skepticism, including the launch in 2021 that involved a performer in a robot costume dancing. Analysts point out that Tesla may struggle to catch up with competitors like Boston Dynamics. MKM analyst Craig Irwin noted the challenges they face, stating that Tesla’s technology appears outdated compared to industry standards.

In addition to Boston Dynamics, Tesla faces competition from Honda and Apptronik, while Chinese companies Dongfeng Motor and Nio are experimenting with humanoid robots from UBTech Robotics, and BMW has integrated Figure’s robots into its operations since the beginning of the year.

Following Musk’s comments, Tesla’s stock rose by more than 3% on Monday. The shares have remained relatively stable year-to-date after experiencing a significant recovery over the past two months. Tesla is set to report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, during which Musk is expected to provide an update on the postponed robotaxi launch.

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