The “Yellowstone Caldera Chronicles” is a weekly series featuring insights from scientists associated with the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. This week, Mark Stelten, a research geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey and deputy Scientist-in-Charge, shares his thoughts on the future of this dormant volcano.
Every year, millions are drawn to Yellowstone National Park to witness its spectacular wildlife and geothermal features. However, a common concern for many visitors is the potential for a volcanic eruption in one of the world’s largest active volcanic systems. While monitoring data can provide insights for restless volcanoes through seismic activity, ground movement, and gas emissions, understanding dormant volcanoes like Yellowstone, which show no immediate signs of activity, is more complex.
For dormant volcanoes, prediction is less about exact eruption dates and more about estimating the likelihood of eruptions within specific time frames—similar to long-term weather forecasting. This requires an understanding of how frequently eruptions have occurred historically. By analyzing geological mapping and dating past eruptions, scientists can establish an eruption frequency, which helps to inform future predictions.
However, it’s important to consider whether volcanic eruptions occur randomly or in clusters. Research indicates that many systems, including Yellowstone, tend to have periods of rapid eruptions followed by long dormancies. Therefore, understanding this behavior pattern is crucial for accurate forecasts.
Determining the eruption rate and patterns is only part of the process. Geologists also need to assess the volcano’s current state within its life cycle. For instance, while the last eruption in Yellowstone occurred around 70,000 years ago, there is evidence of earlier lava flows every 20,000 years. This long gap leaves questions regarding whether we are currently in a period of inactivity or if an eruption is due, a notion that doesn’t really hold scientifically.
Currently, the calculated annual probability of an eruption at Yellowstone is approximately 0.001%, likely an overestimate for the near future. With no signs indicating an imminent eruption and a largely solid underlying magmatic system, the risk remains low. Yet, although the volcanic “off-season” may continue for thousands of years, scientists will remain vigilant, monitoring the volcanic activity in anticipation of any changes.
This article underscores the importance of scientific research and monitoring in ensuring public safety. It offers a message of assurance; despite the grandeur and power of Yellowstone, it remains stable for now. With ongoing studies, volcanologists are prepared for any future developments, showcasing the spirit of vigilance in the scientific community.