Fantasy football awaits the 2025 season with a familiar face leading the charge: the consensus first round on Yahoo ADP. Fantasy analyst Matt Harmon breaks down the top picks, weighing each player’s upside against real-world volume risks as we head into drafts.
1.01 Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals wide receiver
Chase sits at the top for good reason. Even in a best-case scenario where he lands outside the top five, his ceiling remains elite. The biggest risk here is injury to Chase or quarterback Joe Burrow, something no one can predict with certainty.
1.02 Bijan Robinson, Falcons running back
Robinson is the author’s clear RB1 for the season. He impressed last year and has room to grow. The Falcons led the league in zone rushing and also finished first in gap-run success rate, pointing to continued explosiveness. The key question is whether Robinson can deliver the big plays needed to justify a first overall price in a year where Zac Taylor’s offense could evolve again.
1.03 Saquon Barkley, Giants running back
Robinson edges Barkley in the author’s personal rankings, but Barkley remains a top-three option. Barkley’s heavy workload in 2024 raises concerns about regression, durability, and efficiency. Projections should account for the likelihood of missed time or slowed production, even if his talent remains undeniable.
1.04 Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions running back
Gibbs carries some risk: the Lions’ offense could regress, and the interior line remains a factor, with David Montgomery still in the mix. Yet Gibbs’ upside as the lead back in a capable offense makes him a compelling gamble for fantasy rosters that are aiming for high-end week-winning weeks.
1.05 Justin Jefferson, Vikings wide receiver
Jefferson is an undeniable talent, and his return to practice after a hamstring issue helps. The caveat is the passing volume in Minnesota, especially with an inexperienced quarterback under center. Jefferson remains a strong first-round choice, though there may be a tier of receivers some managers value a touch higher due to the offense’s uncertainty.
1.06 CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys wide receiver
Lamb benefits from a productive quarterback and a likely push toward a pass-heavy approach in a team that could feature a strong aerial game. The presence of other weapons, including George Pickens, should keep defenses honest and generate efficient targets for Lamb.
1.07 Derrick Henry, Titans running back
Henry remains a dangerous threat in the red zone and on the ground, with a clear path to double-digit touchdowns as the focal point of Tennessee’s offense. Even as age and athleticism present questions, the volume potential keeps him in the first round.
1.08 Christian McCaffrey, 49ers running back
The injury risk is the obvious caveat with McCaffrey, but when healthy, he dominates fantasy points. From 2022 to 2023, he produced staggering numbers, and in any given week he can outpace the field. Managers must balance the high floor with the health uncertainty that accompanies every CMC season.
1.09 Nico Collins, Texans wide receiver
Collins stands out as a true real-world alpha wideout, perhaps the clear top target in Texas’s passing game. He could lead the NFL in targets if the offense stabilizes around him and Nick Caley’s schemes create ample opportunities. Health and quarterback play are the primary factors to watch.
1.10 Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions wide receiver
St. Brown is a reliable option who gets better each season. Despite some concerns about the offense’s personnel changes and coaching shifts, he remains a safe first-round pick with a solid floor and dependable target share.
1.11 Ashton Jeanty, Raiders running back
Jeanty carries notable risk: the Raiders’ line isn’t elite, the defense is a work in progress, and the offense is expected to lean toward pass-heavy game scripts. However, the volume upside for a backup in a run-heavy scoring environment can still lift him into consideration if he lands lead-back opportunities and goal-line work.
1.12 Malik Nabers, Giants wide receiver
Nabers is part of a group of receivers with a chance to become alpha targets, including high-profile players in the league. He’s dealing with back and foot concerns, so health status is a critical determinant of his draft value. If he stays healthy, Nabers could build a strong target share.
Other names to consider
– Drake London is a noteworthy late-first-round/early-second-round target. His target share could soar if quarterback play stabilizes and the Falcons’ offense leans into his skill set.
– London and Nabers are among the non-obvious targets with potential to lead the league in targets, particularly if opportunity aligns with production.
– Puka Nacua is a name some envision as a first-round talent if Matthew Stafford remains healthy, but uncertainty around Stafford’s back injury is a factor in his draft stock.
– De’Von Achane remains a popular breakout candidate, thanks to his efficiency as a runner and receiving usage. If the offense improves and he stays healthy, Achane could push into the mid-to-late first round in some formats.
– Other notes: If Penix’s presence in Atlanta (or a similar scenario) unlocks the field, London’s fantasy upside grows; a healthy Stafford would make Nacua a compelling long-term option, but the current uncertainty dampens his immediate value.
What this means for your draft strategy
– Early RB or elite WR strategy remains viable, depending on league format and risk tolerance. The top picks blend proven upside with health considerations, so understanding your league’s scoring and positional scarcity is crucial.
– In PPR formats, players like Jefferson, Lamb, Collins, and Nabers hold strong upside due to target shares and air yards potential. In standard formats, the focus remains on high-scoring situations and workload assurance.
– Injury and quarterback stability are the two most important variables to monitor. If a top choice faces uncertainty at QB or an injury concern surfaces, have a clear plan to pivot to another high-floor option.
– Keep an eye on back-end first-round choices who could push their volume into elite territory, like Gibbs, St. Brown, and Nabers, depending on how offenses evolve and how defenses adjust.
Summary
The Yahoo ADP first round for 2025 reflects a blend of proven production, upside plays, and cautious bets around health and offense efficiency. From Chase and Robinson at the top to the steady floor of Jefferson and Lamb, managers have a wide spectrum of routes to building a championship lineup. The conversations around Elijah Holliday-era coaching changes, evolving offenses, and the balance between run- and pass-heavy schemes will shape picks as drafts approach. With strong fantasy outlooks, the 2025 season promises plenty of drama, breakout potential, and first-round decisions that can set the tone for the rest of the year.
Overall tone
Positive with prudent caution. The landscape rewards both proven reliability and high-upside targets, but success hinges on health, quarterback play, and how offenses adapt to evolving schemes.
Optional note for readers
– If you’re planning for a 2025 draft, consider mapping out a two-tier strategy: a safety-first approach for picks 1–6 and a higher-variance, upside-forward plan for picks 7–12. This can help you hedge against injury news and situational changes as summer progresses toward the season.