XRP shows signs of stabilizing after recent gains, trading around $3.00 as it sits above the 50-period EMA and a short-term support level at $3.00. In the background, on-chain and futures data point to a market gearing up for a possible short-term bounce, even as traders remain cautious.
Key metrics and what they suggest
– SOPR (spent output profit ratio) remains above 1, currently around 1.09. This indicates XRP holders are generally in profit on realized transactions, which often correlates with reduced selling pressure as traders wait for higher prices.
– NUPL (net unrealized profit/loss) sits near 0.54 and is edging toward the critical 0.50 level. A reading around 0.50 can signal a potential local bottom, with investors likely to increase exposure as they cool from recent price highs.
– The futures weighted funding rate has risen to 0.0090% from 0.0018% on Tuesday. The uptick in funding costs for long positions points to growing bullish sentiment and greater leverage in the market, which can support a near-term rally if momentum persists.
Technical setup and price action
– XRP is hovering around $3.00, with the 50-period EMA providing support near $2.95 on the 4-hour chart.
– The RSI sits around 48, indicating market indecision rather than clear momentum in either direction.
– The MACD is also moving sideways, suggesting the current tug-of-war between bulls and bears could continue for a while before a clear breakout or breakdown.
– If a breakout occurs, the next resistance level to watch is around $3.35, a level that was tested on August 15. A break above that could open the door toward stronger upside.
– On the downside, key levels to monitor are the 100-period EMA near $2.76 and the immediate support at $2.95. A decisive move below $2.95 would raise the risk of a deeper pullback toward the lower end of the recent range.
What this means for traders
– The combination of SOPR above 1, NUPL near the 0.50 threshold, and a rising funding rate suggests a retrospective cooling of selling pressure and a tilt toward potential near-term upside.
– However, the lack of clear momentum signals from RSI and MACD means the market could remain range-bound in the short term. A sustained move above $3.35 would provide a stronger, more confirmable bullish trigger, while a break below $2.95 could shift the balance back toward consolidation or downside.
Summary and outlook
– XRP is in a cautious recovery phase, with on-chain metrics hinting at a local bottom and funding data signaling growing bullish sentiment. If buying pressure persists and XRP can clear the $3.35 resistance, a short-term bullish breakout toward higher levels could unfold. In the absence of that momentum, traders should watch the $2.95 support and the $2.76 area around the 100-period EMA as potential tests of the larger trend.
Additional context
– XRP remains a key asset in cross-border remittance use cases, and sustained interest in the token often accompanies shifts in on-chain activity and futures funding dynamics. Investors should stay mindful of macro market conditions and any shifts in liquidity that could affect the pace of any breakout.