Winter 2025–2026 snowfall outlook: a weak La Niña is expected to tilt the season snowier across the northern tier and leaner across much of the South, with the Northeast and Great Lakes primed for several high-impact events. Early flurries could arrive in the Upper Midwest by late September 2025, with higher elevations in the Northeast seeing first flakes by early October, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac. While long-range forecasts are probabilistic, the pattern favors frequent clippers, lake-effect bursts, and the potential for coastal Nor’easters, especially if occasional stratospheric disruptions trigger cold snaps in the Midwest and East.
What’s driving the setup
– A weak La Niña typically nudges the storm track across the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and into the Great Lakes/Northeast, supporting colder, wetter conditions there.
– The southern tier often trends drier and milder, trimming snow chances from the Desert Southwest through the Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast.
– If stratospheric patterns disrupt the polar vortex at times, brief but potent cold shots could amplify snowfall in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and interior Northeast.
State-by-state snowfall outlook
Categories: Above Average (snowier), Below Average (less snowy), Average (typical), Minimal/No Snow (little to none).
– Alabama: Below Average – Light snow possible in the north; otherwise drier.
– Alaska: Above Average – Strong season potential.
– Arizona: Below Average – Drier Southwest limits higher-elevation snow.
– Arkansas: Below Average – Limited wintry episodes.
– California: Below Average – Sierra snow constrained by drier signals.
– Colorado: Average – North tends snowier; south somewhat leaner.
– Connecticut: Above Average – Coastal storms could boost totals.
– Delaware: Above Average – Mid-Atlantic set up for notable events.
– Florida: Minimal/No Snow – Rare to none.
– Georgia: Below Average – Occasional flurries in the north at most.
– Hawaii: Minimal/No Snow – Only the highest peaks could see brief snow.
– Idaho: Above Average – Northern Rockies favored for frequent snow.
– Illinois: Above Average – Great Lakes influence and clippers.
– Indiana: Above Average – Periodic snowy spells likely.
– Iowa: Above Average – Cold snaps may elevate totals.
– Kansas: Below Average – Southern Plains influence favors less snow.
– Kentucky: Below Average – Lean season overall.
– Louisiana: Minimal/No Snow – Gulf influence keeps snow highly unlikely.
– Maine: Above Average – Frequent systems for New England.
– Maryland: Above Average – Coastal and interior setups both in play.
– Massachusetts: Above Average – Nor’easters could pile on.
– Michigan: Above Average – Lake-effect poised to shine.
– Minnesota: Above Average – Early and frequent snow chances.
– Mississippi: Below Average – Very limited opportunities.
– Missouri: Above Average – Clippers and cold shots support snow.
– Montana: Above Average – Northern Rockies lined up for strong totals.
– Nebraska: Below Average – Skews leaner overall.
– Nevada: Below Average – Southwest dryness curbs snow.
– New Hampshire: Above Average – Consistent New England storm track.
– New Jersey: Above Average – Major coastal systems possible.
– New Mexico: Below Average – Southern Rockies suppressed.
– New York: Above Average – Lake-effect plus coastal storms.
– North Carolina: Below Average – Northern tier may see brief events.
– North Dakota: Above Average – Cold, snowy Northern Plains pattern.
– Ohio: Above Average – Great Lakes and Ohio Valley favored.
– Oklahoma: Below Average – Limited wintry episodes.
– Oregon: Above Average – Pacific Northwest stormy and cool.
– Pennsylvania: Above Average – Appalachians and interior Northeast favored.
– Rhode Island: Above Average – Storm track supportive.
– South Carolina: Below Average – Rare snow.
– South Dakota: Above Average – Occasional arctic shots elevate snow.
– Tennessee: Below Average – Light, infrequent events.
– Texas: Below Average – Southern Plains trend drier/milder.
– Utah: Below Average – Southern Rockies warmth limits snowpack.
– Vermont: Above Average – Strong potential for ski country.
– Virginia: Above Average – Mid-Atlantic could score a few bigger storms.
– Washington: Above Average – Active and snowy.
– West Virginia: Above Average – Appalachians favored for frequent snow.
– Wisconsin: Above Average – Great Lakes and clipper activity.
– Wyoming: Above Average – Northern Rockies primed.
How the categories stack up
– Above Average: 29 states
– Below Average: 17 states
– Average: 1 state
– Minimal/No Snow: 3 states
This distribution underscores a northern-tilted snow season, with the Great Lakes, Northeast, Pacific Northwest, and Northern Rockies leading the way.
Why this matters
– Travel and operations: Transportation agencies and businesses in the northern tier should plan for more frequent plow events and potential lake-effect bursts. Southern states can anticipate fewer disruptive snow episodes but should remain alert for brief cold snaps.
– Outdoor recreation: Skiers and snowboarders in New England, the Northern Rockies, and the Pacific Northwest may find extended windows of favorable conditions. Early-season opportunities could emerge in the Upper Midwest and higher New England terrain.
– Preparedness: Long-range outlooks guide planning, but local, short-term forecasts will refine storm timing and intensity. Revisit plans as the season approaches and during pattern shifts.
Logical context and what to watch
– The La Niña signal supports the broad regional split seen here. If the La Niña remains weak and intermittent, intraseasonal swings are likely, producing quieter stretches punctuated by impactful storm windows.
– Any mid-winter stratospheric disruption could temporarily intensify cold and snow potential across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and interior Northeast.
– Marginal temperature zones near the Mid-Atlantic coast will hinge on storm track and timing, making rain/snow lines especially sensitive.
Positive takeaways
– Northern and high-elevation communities can prepare early, optimizing snow management and winter recreation.
– Southern states may benefit from fewer winter travel disruptions and reduced snow-related hazards.
– The pattern offers multiple opportunities for classic winter scenery across the Great Lakes and Northeast, with potential boosts to winter tourism.
Summary
A weak La Niña favors a snowier-than-usual winter across the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Great Lakes, and much of the Northeast, while the southern tier trends drier and less snowy. Of the 50 states, 29 are projected Above Average for snowfall, 17 Below Average, 1 Average, and 3 with Minimal/No Snow. Early flakes may appear in the Upper Midwest by late September and in higher elevations of the Northeast by early October. Expect periodic cold snaps to enhance snow chances in the Midwest and East, with Nor’easter windows for the Northeast. Check updated local forecasts as winter nears for precise timing and totals.