Will Tesla’s Humanoid Robots Transform the Market?

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Tesla’s stock experienced an uptick on Monday as Elon Musk emphasized the potential value of the company’s humanoid robots. Musk announced on X that Tesla plans to have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for internal use by next year, with hopes for high production available to other companies by 2026.

Earlier this year, during Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting, Musk indicated that the Optimus robots would enter limited production in 2025, estimating that over 1,000 robots would be operational at Tesla by the end of that year. Currently, two such robots are already on the factory floor, although Tesla has not disclosed their specific tasks.

Musk had previously suggested that these robots could potentially contribute an additional $20 trillion to the company’s market capitalization. However, sales for the robots are not anticipated until late 2025, with projected prices ranging between $20,000 and $30,000.

The exact nature of what Musk means by “genuinely useful” robots remains uncertain, as previous demonstrations have raised skepticism. In May, Tesla faced criticism for showcasing a video where an Optimus robot appeared to fold a shirt, which was alleged to be controlled by a person off-screen.

This is not the first time Tesla has used theatrical presentations to showcase its robots. The company infamously introduced the Optimus project in 2021 featuring a dancer in a robot costume.

Analyst Craig Irwin from Roth MKM expressed doubt about Tesla’s competitive edge, commenting on Yahoo Finance that achieving a sentient humanoid robot by 2025 seems implausible, especially considering Tesla’s past attempts. He noted that their current technology appears outdated when compared to advancements made by competitors like Boston Dynamics.

In addition to Boston Dynamics, Tesla will face competition from Honda, Apptronik, and Chinese automakers Dongfeng Motor and Nio, which are experimenting with humanoid robots from UBTech Robotics. Meanwhile, BMW has been using humanoid robots developed by Silicon Valley-based Figure in its operations since the beginning of the year.

Tesla’s stock climbed over 3% on Musk’s remarks, and shares are approximately even year-to-date after a significant rebound in recent months. The company will report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, during which Musk is expected to update investors on the delayed robotaxi launch.

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