As the Fourth of July approaches in 2025, Central Texas residents are preparing for their holiday celebrations with weather conditions that could go one of two ways: scorching heat or sticky humidity with a chance of rain. Current forecasts suggest a trend toward increased humidity and potential rain, but officials assure that it won’t be a complete washout for Independence Day festivities.
The effects of Tropical Storm Barry are being felt as it moves north into Texas, leading to increased rain probabilities particularly in West Texas. Today, the chances of rain remain modest, with about a 10% likelihood in the morning and rising to 20% by the afternoon. Dusty skies will accompany partly-to-mostly cloudy conditions, while the lingering humidity is expected to keep daytime highs in the low to mid-90s, with heat indices climbing close to 100°.
Looking ahead to the Fourth of July, there is a notable shift in the weather forecast. Recent model data indicate an increased probability of rain on both Thursday and Friday. The forecast suggests that a stalled front to the north might trigger storm activity in West Texas, assisting in varying weather patterns across the region. Thursday morning will see temperatures ranging from the low to mid-70s, warming into the upper 80s and low 90s by midday. Rainfall could bring afternoon temperatures down into the lower 80s, providing a much-needed respite from the heat for some areas.
On Independence Day, while scattered showers and thunderstorms could still emerge, any significant rain is expected mainly in the afternoon, particularly west of I-35. The rain activity should ease by sunset, ensuring that evening fireworks displays are unlikely to be impacted. Although the chances for rain may lower afterwards, forecasted temperatures will still endure the humidity, leading to heat indices around 100°.
With a little luck from the weather, Central Texans can look forward to a Fourth of July filled with festive activities, although it may be wise to keep an eye on the skies for any passing showers. After Friday, the forecast reveals a decrease in rain chances with a gradual increase in temperatures, allowing for a warming trend as the week progresses.