While the global community looks forward to the upcoming COP32 to be hosted in Ethiopia, the question of who will host COP31 remains unresolved following a week of discussions. Australia is vying to co-host COP31 alongside the Pacific Islands, garnering significant support. However, Turkey’s steadfast bid continues to complicate the situation, as delegates describe Turkey’s position as an “immovable stone wall.”
Australia’s Climate Change Ministry reiterated its determination to secure the bid, highlighting overwhelming support from the Western European and Others Group (WEOG) and Pacific leaders. Minister Chris Bowen emphasized that 23 out of 28 WEOG countries have expressed support, while Turkey remains the only dissenting voice. The process for reaching a decision is largely based on consensus rather than formal voting, making negotiations crucial.
Bowen described the process as traditionally operating on trust and understanding but acknowledged that reaching a win-win outcome with Turkey has been challenging. Multiple meetings have taken place, but a resolution has not yet been found. Throughout discussions, it has been made clear that if Australia wins the bid, it must genuinely reflect Pacific priorities, not just serve as a branding exercise.
Fenton Lutunatabua from 350.org underscored the importance of a COP that aligns with Pacific leadership, stressing that ten years after the Paris Agreement, action is urgently needed to mitigate climate change risks. He pointed out the devastation climate change brings to their homes, advocating for the highest levels of action possible.
In response to skepticism about its fossil fuel policies, Australia highlighted a commitment to a 2050 net-zero target which will see systemic shifts toward energy efficiency, electrification, and scaling up clean energy supplies. Despite critics arguing that these measures do not go far enough, Australia aims to decarbonize electricity significantly by 2030. The concern remains that vigorously expanding fossil fuel projects simultaneously sends mixed signals about its commitment to climate leadership.
The situation is urgent, as should an agreement between Australia and Turkey fail, Germany may automatically be assigned as the host country for COP31, a scenario Berlin is eager to avoid. Discussions continue as the Pacific region remains hopeful for a consensus in these talks.
This ongoing dialogue highlights the strong willingness among Pacific nations to advocate for substantial climate action and the necessity of elevated international support that centers the voices of vulnerable communities. The narrative is one of cautious optimism as both Australia and the Pacific Islands seek a unifying agreement that prioritizes effective responses to climate change. The world watches closely to see if Australia will successfully host COP31 and to evaluate the level of genuine climate action that emerges from this critical summit.