Reilly Opelka is favored to advance to the round of 16 at the ATP Cincinnati Open after a predictive model projected he has the edge over Francisco Comesana in their Tuesday meeting.
Dimers’ advanced tennis simulation ran 10,000 match trials and gives Opelka a 59% chance to win the match and a 57% chance to take the first set. The match is scheduled for Tuesday, August 12, 2025, at approximately 11:00 AM ET at the ATP Cincinnati tournament.
Current U.S. betting odds at the time of publication:
– Moneyline: Opelka -200, Comesana +162
– First set: Opelka -175, Comesana +137
(All odds subject to change.)
Why Opelka is favored
The model’s edge for Opelka largely reflects factors that typically benefit big servers: consistent hold rates on serve and a strong ability to win free points. Those qualities often translate into higher probabilities of winning sets and matches, especially on faster hard courts like Cincinnati’s. That said, a 59% projection still leaves meaningful opportunity for Comesana to pull an upset, and the match should be competitive.
Picks and betting notes
– The model’s strongest single recommendation for this matchup is the moneyline in favor of Opelka.
– As with any betting scenario, odds can shift before match time. Bettors should confirm up-to-date lines and consider bankroll management and responsible-gambling resources (for assistance in the U.S., call 1-800-GAMBLER).
Match snapshot
– Players: Reilly Opelka vs. Francisco Comesana
– Event: ATP Cincinnati Open, Round of 32
– Date/time: Tuesday, August 12, 2025 — approx. 11:00 AM ET
Additional comments and context
– Simulated projections are a probabilistic tool—useful for assessing likely outcomes but not guarantees. A 59% win probability indicates Opelka is the favorite, but roughly four in ten simulated outcomes still favored Comesana.
– For fans, this match offers a classic contrast in styles: big-serving, aggressive play vs. a lower-profile challenger looking to capitalize on any return-game wobble.
– If you’re covering this match for content or editorial purposes, consider highlighting in-play dynamics such as serve hold rates and breakpoint conversion, which often decide matches involving a dominant server.
Brief summary
An advanced simulation favors Reilly Opelka (59% to win; 57% to take the first set) over Francisco Comesana in their Cincinnati Open round-of-32 clash on Tuesday, August 12, 2025, with current moneyline odds showing Opelka as the favorite. While the model points to Opelka as the likely winner, Comesana retains a credible upset chance.