Buffalo, N.Y. – Increasing confidence in the weather forecast indicates that a significant lake effect snow event is set to impact Western New York, particularly in the densely populated areas of Erie County. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the entire region, excluding Allegany County, effective from Sunday evening through Wednesday.
Light lake effect snow is anticipated to fall northeast of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario today and tonight. However, meteorologists warn that a more organized and heavier snowfall is expected to commence later tonight into Monday morning. “The snow really won’t become better organized until later on tonight,” stated Steve Welch, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. He added that snowfall intensity is likely to increase, particularly by Monday morning.
The weather service indicated that blowing and drifting snow could pose a significant challenge in areas where the lake effect snow bands establish. According to forecasts, the placement of the snow band will primarily be northeast of Lake Erie on Monday morning, gradually shifting southward by late morning and into the afternoon.
The lake effect snow band is projected to focus on central and southern portions of Erie County, extending to far northwestern Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties and covering most of Wyoming County throughout Tuesday. Meteorologists highlight that the lake snow band will commence in areas as far north as Niagara County on Monday morning before shifting to the south and enhancing over central and southern Erie County by the afternoon.
Forecasts suggest that areas extending from Buffalo’s Southtowns into northwestern Wyoming and southwestern Genesee counties could receive up to 20 inches of snow. Areas outside of these zones may still see significant snowfall, with predictions of six to twelve inches in parts of northern and southern Erie County and extreme northwestern Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties. Snowfall rates could reach as high as two inches per hour during this event.
In addition to the heavy snow, temperatures on Monday night are expected to plummet towards zero inland and drop to the single digits near the lakes. Winds from the west will result in wind chill values plunging as low as 20 below zero. The western Southern Tier region is particularly prone to experiencing wind chill readings below -15. Although wind chill values may improve slightly to between zero and ten below on Tuesday night, they will remain extremely low throughout the event.
Residents and travelers in the affected regions are urged to stay informed through local news outlets for updates and safety information. The forecast indicates that the hazardous weather could severely impact travel, particularly during the Monday morning and Wednesday morning commutes. As conditions worsen, travelers are reminded to exercise caution due to potential whiteout scenarios and the risk of downed tree branches leading to isolated power outages.
With continued monitoring of this winter storm, the community’s preparedness and adherence to safety guidelines will be crucial as Western New York braces for its icy grip.