In Week 4 of the NFL season, passing yardage has become a focal point for bettors, especially with several starting quarterbacks either injured or underperforming. The league-wide passing yard total significantly dropped over 10% from Week 2 to Week 3, reflecting the impact of missing players. While six quarterbacks surpassed the 300-yard mark in Week 2, only Justin Herbert managed to do so in Week 3, finishing with 300 yards after a last-minute drive, edging out 16-1 longshot Caleb Williams by just 2 yards.
Looking ahead to Week 4, predictions are swirling about potential standout performances. Michael Penix emerges as a promising candidate with favorable odds of +1500. The Atlanta Falcons are expected to look for a resurgence after a shutout loss, making strategic changes, including staff adjustments. They will face a Washington Commanders secondary riddled with injuries, giving Penix an advantageous matchup. The Commanders have struggled defensively, ranking 27th in expected points added (EPA) for intermediate passes and 19th for deep passes.
Meanwhile, the game promises to be high-stakes in terms of both offense and passing performances. With only a one-point spread anticipated, both teams could be positioned to capitalize on the other’s vulnerabilities. The Falcons’ receiving corps, consisting of notable players like Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts, could exploit the weakened Commanders’ defense.
On the other end of the spectrum, Brock Purdy offers a compelling longshot option for bettors. Coming off a 277-yard and 2-touchdown performance against the Seahawks, he showed impressive efficiency, completing 74% of his passes. The San Francisco 49ers face a Jaguars defense that has improved since last year but still has shown some vulnerabilities against the pass. With uncertainty surrounding the Jaguars’ ability to contain Purdy effectively and the 49ers missing defensive star Nick Bosa, there is potential for Purdy to replicate or exceed his prior success against the Jaguars.
Overall, as Week 4 approaches, analysts suggest a thoughtful approach to betting on passing yards, with keen observations about both team dynamics and individual quarterback matchups. This week could provide opportunities for significant passing performances, making it an exciting time for NFL fanatics and bettors alike.