As the 2025 NFL regular season progresses, this week’s analysis focuses on teams facing funnel defenses and the fantasy players who may thrive in these matchups.
A funnel defense is characterized by its tendency to face a significantly higher rate of either passing or rushing attempts. By examining how opposing teams approach these defenses during neutral game situations—when the score is close—fantasy managers can uncover potential playmakers worth considering for their rosters.
This analysis has evolved, gaining depth as more data becomes available, and it is particularly relevant as we head into Week 10.
The following are notable matchups to keep an eye on.
**Pass Funnel Matchups**
**Patriots vs. Buccaneers**
It’s no surprise that Tampa Bay lands on the pass funnel list this week. Their opponents have a staggering 61% passing rate this season, which has climbed to 64% over their last three games. Six out of the eight teams that have faced the Buccaneers have surpassed their expected passing rate, suggesting teams are more inclined to try and air it out against them.
New England’s offense struggles to establish a run game, ranking low in rush yards per contact, making their running backs a less appealing fantasy option. This situation elevates the fantasy potential for the Patriots’ receivers, particularly Stefon Diggs. Additionally, with Kayshon Boutte dealing with a hamstring issue, players like Kyle Williams and Demario Douglas could see increased roles. Douglas has shown promise in recent games, while Hunter Henry’s participation makes him a viable deep-league streaming option.
**Falcons vs. Colts**
The Atlanta Falcons prefer a run-heavy style reminiscent of old-school football, but they may have to shift gears against the Colts, who have exhibited pronounced pass funnel traits. Opponents have a 64% passing rate against Indianapolis, a trend highlighted by the Steelers’ recent offensive uptick. The Colts’ defense allowing high success rates in rushing could impact the Falcons’ traditional game plan, especially as they enter this game listed as underdogs.
Though Bijan Robinson may still contribute through passing plays, Tyler Allgeier could struggle if the team falls behind early. Drake London figures to be the primary beneficiary of increased passing attempts, while others like Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts may also find opportunities in a high-volume passing scenario.
**Run Funnel Matchups**
**Dolphins vs. Bills**
Buffalo’s rush defense has been underwhelming, prompting teams to adopt more aggressive running plays. They’ve faced the lowest pass rate over expected this season, presenting a ripe scenario for the Dolphins. In their previous matchup, running back De’Von Achane was effective, and the Bills’ defensive injuries, particularly to run-stopper Ed Oliver, allow for another potential run-first approach by Miami in Week 10.
If the game remains competitive, expect Achane to be a focal point, with Ollie Gordon also potentially carving out a role, particularly given the Bills’ struggles against the run.
**Panthers vs. Saints**
The New Orleans defense has finally earned a spot as a run funnel. In recent weeks, it has faced the lowest neutral pass rates and has struggled against teams trying to establish the run. Carolina, which excels at running the ball, will likely seize this matchup as an opportunity to lean heavily on their ground game.
Rico Dowdle may shine in this environment, while Chuba Hubbard remains someone to watch, especially if the Panthers can dictate the game’s pace. That said, with fewer passing attempts, few Carolina players outside of Tetairoa McMillan may be reliable for fantasy production in standard leagues.
Overall, these matchups highlight opportunities for fantasy managers to be proactive in their player selections based on team tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities. As the season progresses, identifying these funnel defenses will be vital for navigating the ever-challenging landscape of fantasy football.