Violence Erupts in Lebanon: A Deeper Conspiracy?

A series of explosions targeting communication devices rocked Lebanon on Wednesday, resulting in the deaths of 14 individuals and injuring 450 others, according to health officials in the region. This surge in violence comes just one day after a coordinated series of pager explosions that occurred on Tuesday, which led to 12 fatalities and nearly 3,000 injuries across Lebanon and parts of Syria.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant addressed the situation on Wednesday, highlighting the “excellent achievements” of Israel’s military and intelligence operations, though he did not refer to the attacks on communication devices. He stated that “we are at the beginning of a new era in this war,” suggesting a shift in focus towards northern regions.

The latest round of explosions followed threats from Hezbollah that Israel would face consequences for the recent attacks, increasing concerns among analysts that this could escalate into a full-scale war, a scenario the United States is attempting to avert. While Israel has not openly claimed responsibility for the attacks, a U.S. official indicated that Israel had informed Washington about carrying out the blasts.

Hezbollah had anticipated the risk of being targeted through their communications technology and had been using pagers as a precaution. The group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, previously urged followers to abandon their cellphones, warning that they could be used for surveillance.

The second wave of explosions occurred in various locations in Beirut, including during a funeral for Hezbollah members who died in the previous day’s blasts. In response to the conflict that escalated after Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel, prompting Israel to retaliate against Hezbollah targets regularly.

Experts suggest that Hezbollah’s shift to using pagers was a widespread change aimed at avoiding Israeli surveillance. The organization provided these devices not only to its militants but also to civilian staff. As a result of Wednesday’s incidents, reports indicated a significant number of casualties, including healthcare workers affiliated with Hezbollah.

In the context leading up to the explosions, Israeli leadership had emphasized the necessity of military action to curb Hezbollah’s threats and protect Israeli civilians living near the border with Lebanon. Some Israeli commentators framed the attacks as a tactical success but noted that the timing of the explosions was unplanned and prompted by concerns about potential leaks.

Despite Hezbollah’s declarations of retaliation against Israel, experts argue that the group’s operational capacity for an all-out conflict is severely diminished. Suspicion regarding internal security and the possibility of Israeli infiltration into Hezbollah’s communications complicate the group’s military posture further.

Iran, which has also been impacted by these attacks, may feel pressured to respond, particularly as it has not yet exacted revenge for a previous incident involving the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Analysts believe that regional tensions could emerge in response to the recent escalation.

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