At the Vietnam Real Estate Conference – VRES 2025 held on December 11 in Ho Chi Minh City, experts expressed a more optimistic outlook for 2025 compared to the volatile market conditions seen in 2022, which were heavily influenced by rising interest rates. While there are some slight increases in interest rates at the end of the year, investments continue to flow strongly into segments addressing real housing needs.
According to Mr. Đinh Minh Tuấn, Director of the Southern Region at Batdongsan.com.vn, the real estate market in 2025 is entering a recovery phase characterized by regional and segment differentiation. Data from Batdongsan.com.vn indicate that the level of interest in properties for sale nationwide has picked up again since the first quarter of 2023, with prices also rising in areas with genuine housing demands or benefiting directly from expanding infrastructure.
A fourth-quarter brokerage survey for 2025 clearly reflects this differentiation trend: 48% of brokers reported a decrease in transactions, while only 14% noticed an increase, and 35% saw stability in the market. Within this fluctuating landscape, condominiums continue to lead, with 37% of brokers reporting increased transactions, evidencing sustained demand for actual housing. Single-family homes have also shown resilience, with 26% of brokers noting improved transactions and over half reporting market stability. Conversely, land lots and villas appear to be cooling off, with around 40% of brokers indicating decreased activity; shops have also plateaued, with 29% reporting declines and half indicating a stable market.
In Ho Chi Minh City, 2025 is anticipated to be a significant phase of urban compression, with key projects like Metro Line 1 and the Ben Luc – Long Thanh Expressway, along with various bridges connecting to Dong Nai, creating substantial momentum for the development of satellite urban areas, notably in Thuan An, Di An, and Vung Tau.
The supply of apartments is rapidly increasing as the urban area expands beyond the second ring road, particularly in the Northeast region. Before 2015, Ho Chi Minh City had 324 apartment projects in this area; this number has now surged to around 1,050 projects, a remarkable increase of 3.2 times.
Apartment prices have also seen significant hikes in the fourth quarter of 2025. Areas like Nha Be (old) saw a 64% rise, while District 7 (old) increased by 63%, and Binh Thanh (old) saw a 57% jump compared to the first quarter of 2023. The heat of the market extends beyond Ho Chi Minh City, reaching Binh Duong, with interest in apartments in Thuan An rising by 129%, Di An by 103%, and Thu Dau Mot by 65%, indicating a robust shift towards neighboring areas.
In the single-family home segment, prices continue to remain high. In central Ho Chi Minh City, prices range from 210 to 286 million VND/m², which is 1.4 to 2.2 times higher than apartment prices. Moving to expanded districts, prices drop to 125 to 204 million VND/m². In the outskirts and former Thu Duc City, single-family home prices are only slightly higher than apartments, indicating considerable room for price increases due to better price accessibility.
The demand for home ownership in Ho Chi Minh City is reportedly higher than that in Hanoi, attributed to relatively lower housing prices. For the shop segment, sales transactions have started to show a slight recovery; however, the rental market remains sluggish due to a supply-demand mismatch. Rental demand is increasing in the near-center areas, yet supply is heavily concentrated in the center, hindering improvement in utilization rates.
A survey of over 1,000 consumers by Batdongsan.com.vn identified four main buyer behavior groups: one actively seeking home purchases with a high readiness to take loans; another preferring long-term rentals for experience and flexibility; a third group that already owns homes, continuing to accumulate wealth or shifting to gold savings; and a group that, despite inheriting property, still seeks to purchase additional homes. Notably, the demand for home ownership in Ho Chi Minh City outstrips that of Hanoi, with homes under 3 billion VND making up 21-31% of the market, compared to around 10% in Hanoi. This trend suggests sustained and expanding demand in the southern market.
Against this backdrop of market differentiation, Mr. Đinh Minh Tuấn advises investors to leverage data to identify areas of genuine growth potential, where infrastructure is well-developed, quality supply exists, and real housing needs are apparent. He emphasizes that chasing “waves” of market psychology or rumors poses significant risks in what remains a fragmented market.