Pamela Maldonado is placing her bets on a lower point total for the USC Trojans in their highly anticipated matchup against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. This clash comes with significant implications, as Notre Dame, holding a 4-2 record, is in desperate need of a standout victory to stay in the playoff conversation.
USC has demonstrated a potent offense this season under the leadership of head coach Lincoln Riley, showcasing their speed, balance, and ruthlessness on the field. However, as they travel to face Notre Dame, they encounter a formidable challenge that could test the durability of their offensive strategy.
The game is set for Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET, airing on NBC/Peacock, with Notre Dame favored by 9.5 points. The over/under for the game is currently set at 60.5.
USC boasts the top-ranking offensive metrics in the country, leading in both offensive success rate and net expected points added (EPA) per play. This indicates that each play they execute adds substantial value, showing their capability of maintaining advantageous yardage throughout drives. However, this strength will be challenged against a Notre Dame defense known for its ability to force teams into long, methodical plays and a struggle to find success in the red zone.
Historically, USC’s red zone touchdown conversion rate dips significantly on the road, hovering around 55%, in stark contrast to their more formidable home performance where they exceed 70%. This trend, if it persists, could hinder their ability to score effectively against Notre Dame’s well-structured defense, which ranks in the top 30 for both run defense and tackling.
While USC has been prolific in their scoring efforts, they are likely to face their most demanding test yet against a defense that excels in limiting big plays and closing down space. The ability of Notre Dame to tackle effectively may restrict USC’s rhythm, forcing them to navigate tougher third downs. Although USC has a solid record on fourth down conversions, even a few failures could lead to detrimental shifts in momentum and scoring opportunities.
On the offensive front, Notre Dame is notably improving with a run game supported by players like Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. As these athletes gain traction, they could contribute to fewer possessions for USC, creating additional challenges for the Trojans to maintain their scoring output. Given these dynamics, many analysts, including Maldonado, foresee USC’s point total potentially falling below 25.5 points, as the effort to sustain their impressive scoring streak meets a robust defensive resistance.
This exciting matchup has the potential to deliver an electrifying atmosphere while viewing how both teams excel and adjust under pressure. Fans are expected to watch closely, as the game not only impacts rankings but also shapes the narratives of both teams moving forward in the season.