USC football outlook: Lincoln Riley weighs best-case and worst-case paths for 2025
With the season opener just 19 days away, USC head coach Lincoln Riley has framed a thoughtful exercise around what could go right and what could go wrong for the Trojans this season. In looking at the upside, he suggested a world where USC could reach the College Football Playoff is possible; in looking at the downside, he lays out a less forgiving scenario that could leave USC in rough shape come fall.
The worst-case scenario and what it could look like
Riley’s exercise begins with a potential stumble out of the gate. He notes that if USC were to start 0-1 or 1-1, the next stretch—three road games in four weeks, including Illinois, Notre Dame and Nebraska, plus a tough home date with Michigan—could tilt the schedule toward trouble. A surprise loss early could put the Trojans on shaky ground as the calendar turns to the heart of the season, with a road trip to Eugene still looming.
In USC’s hypothetical downturn, a difficult midseason gauntlet could leave the team around 4-4 after Nebraska, setting up a need to salvage key late-season games to become bowl-eligible. And yes, the possibility exists that USC could need a win over UCLA just to reach a bowl game, depending on how things unfold elsewhere on the slate.
On defense, Riley is more confident, with D’Anton Lynn having built a strong unit over 18 months. A worst-case scenario would likely hinge on offense—particularly how Jayden Maiava handles pressure and how injuries might expose the line’s depth. An unforeseen injury to a potential All-American linebacker Eric Gentry would complicate things further, though the defensive rebuild has looked sturdier than the offense at times.
Even in a down year, Riley notes the buyout would still be substantial, and the university’s finances and leadership would likely want a stable path forward. The looming No. 1 recruiting class and a five-star quarterback pipeline waiting behind Maiava mean the program won’t light the fuse on a drastic reset unless circumstances become untenable.
The best-case and the middle ground
On the flip side, the best-case scenario envisions a fast start and a smooth run through a schedule that features some formidable opponents ahead. Even in a realistic middle ground, there are key questions—how the offensive line protects Maiava, how quickly the offense gels, and how health holds up in a schedule loaded with high-pressure games.
Strength in the trenches and a backfield that can share carries are central to USC’s ceiling. Riley has highlighted a defensive staff that has stabilized the program, even as the offense seeks its footing against a demanding slate.
Stock to buy at the midway mark
Here are eight players the staff is watching closely, four freshmen and four returners, whom the writer believes USC should lean on as the season progresses:
– Devan Thompkins, defensive tackle: A foundational piece on the interior, poised to pair with Keeshawn Silver with Jide Abasiri pushing for more time.
– Kameryn Fountain, defensive end: A potential sack leader, whose football IQ has taken a major step forward.
– Waymond Jordan, running back: Emerging as a leading back in a capable rotation; carries could be split with Eli Sanders, but Jordan has stood out.
– Walker Lyons, tight end: Expected to take on a larger role as a sophomore, potentially sharing more time with Lake McRee.
– Floyd Boucard, defensive tackle: A pass-rush instinct that might be too impressive to ignore, even with depth on the line.
– Alex Graham, defensive back: Already showing versatility at multiple positions, likely to contribute with Prophet Brown out.
– Elijah Vaikona, offensive tackle: A massive presence who is rapidly refining his run and pass-blocking skills; could be the left tackle of the future.
– Harry Dalton III, running back: An investment for 2026, standing out among the younger backs, with quarterback experience in high school.
Note on injuries and eligibility
– Prophet Brown’s noncontact injury is a setback that could reshape USC’s nickel and slot coverage, potentially forcing internal reshuffles to cover the gap.
– DJ Wingfield’s eligibility case remains up in the air as a judge considers injunctive relief against the NCAA in a case tied to the Five-Year Rule and antitrust arguments. A ruling around Aug. 18 could influence USC’s plans for the season.
– The broader health picture matters, as deeper depth at multiple positions could determine whether USC can sustain success through a physically demanding schedule.
Other notes and context
– The program recently extended longtime baseball coach Andy Stankiewicz, a move seen as strategic stability for USC’s athletic department after years of building success in baseball.
– Preseason polls and award watch lists are, in the author’s view, not necessarily indicative of outcomes; USC’s positioning in these early indicators may matter less than how the team performs on the field.
What I’m watching this week
– A lighthearted aside about a Wes Anderson–style film, The Phoenician Scheme, reflecting the writer’s habit of blending sports with pop culture as fall camps and exhibitions approach.
In case you missed it
– Prophet Brown injury updates
– Inside Jayden Maiava’s development as USC’s quarterback
– DJ Wingfield’s NCAA case and potential impact on roster construction
– Chad Baker-Mazara’s ties to Dominican roots and his USC push
Summary and takeaways
USC faces a wide range of possibilities this season, from a hopeful playoff push to a more conservative path characterized by a tougher-than-expected slate and potential injuries. The optimism centers on a top-tier recruiting class, a versatile and improving defense, and a quarterback room that Riley believes can grow into a high-ceiling offense with the right pieces around Maiava. The most important factors will be offensive line health and consistency, defensive depth when key players are sidelined, and how quickly the Trojans adapt to a schedule that could test them in every corner of the field.
A hopeful note
Even in a cautious scenario, USC’s talent and program trajectory offer reason for optimism: a robust recruiting pipeline, a stabilizing coaching staff, and a front seven that has shown flashes of elite play. If the team stays healthy and growth comes rapidly on offense, the ceiling remains high for a season that could be as dynamic as it is challenging.
Additional value and commentary
– This outlook underscores how critical the offensive line and quarterback development will be for USC’s success. If Maiava can command the unit and protect the ball, USC’s floor rises dramatically.
– Injuries and eligibility rulings could swing depth charts in ways that make or break a red-letter season. Keeping a close eye on Prophet Brown and Wingfield’s status is essential for fans and analysts.
– The piece’s balance of real risks with measured optimism mirrors the broader NCAA landscape: talent at USC remains significant, but success hinges on execution, health, and growth under pressure.
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