Two late matches will determine the remaining U.S. Open quarterfinalists on Monday as Andrey Rublev meets Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alex de Minaur takes on qualifier Leandro Riedi.
Rublev vs Auger-Aliassime: a collision of power and a resentful head-to-head
This matchup stands out for its stakes and its history. Reaching the quarterfinals would be a significant feather in the cap for either player, and the winner will likely set up a date with either De Minaur or Riedi in the next round. Rublev owns a strong psychological edge in their rivalry, leading 7-1 in their series and winning five consecutive meetings since a Rotterdam indoor loss in 2022. They’ve met twice this season, with Rublev prevailing in a third-set tiebreak in Doha and then taking Hamburg 6-1, 6-4 on clay.
Auger-Aliassime has flashed elite form this fortnight, most notably pulling off a dramatic upset of world No. 3 Alexander Zverev—4-6, 7-6(7), 6-4, 6-4—after two earlier wins over Billy Harris and Roman Safiullin. Rublev, by contrast, has been steadier but not pristine, needing a fourth-set tiebreak against Tristan Boyer and pushing Coleman Wong to five sets.
Prediction: Rublev in 4 or 5 sets. Rublev’s comfort with big moments and the head-to-head edge give him the upper hand, though Auger-Aliassime has shown he can rise to the moment when challenged.
De Minaur vs Riedi: experience versus breakout potential
Riedi, ranked 435 in the world, has been a story of grit and opportunism. The 23-year-old Swiss qualifier carved his way into the main draw, then beat Pedro Martinez 6-4, 6-2, 6-3, fought back from two sets down to defeat Francisco Cerundolo, and received a retirement from Kamil Majchrzak to advance to the fourth round. This is unfamiliar territory for him, facing a veteran of deep Grand Slam runs.
De Minaur has been impeccable so far in New York, dropping only a single set across wins over Christopher O’Connell, Shintaro Mochizuki, and Daniel Altmaier. The Australian is a seasoned campaigner in the second week of majors and will test Riedi’s still-developing game with relentless ball placement and depth.
Prediction: De Minaur in 3 or 4 sets. The contrast in experience and consistency should carry De Minaur through, though Riedi will have moments of fight and a few surprising winners to keep the match competitive.
What to watch
– Head-to-head dynamics: Rublev’s recent dominance over Auger-Aliassime will be a storyline, along with whether Auger-Aliassime can flip the script in a high-stakes Grand Slam match.
– Break-point management: Auger-Aliassime’s performance under pressure and Rublev’s ability to close out tight sets will be decisive.
– Riedi’s break-in moments: Expect bold shot-making from the Swiss qualifier, but also moments of inexperience against a top-tier, consistent ball-striker like De Minaur.
Why this matters
– The outcomes shape potential quarterfinals and the overall narrative of the Open’s late stages, highlighting how youth and experience collide on the big stage.
– If Rublev or De Minaur advance, they’ll carry momentum into a stretch of favorable draws, increasing their chance to push deeper.
Editor’s note and outlook
Both matches promise drama as the two remaining fourth-round slots are decided. Rublev’s confidence against Auger-Aliassime will be tested by the Canadian’s recent form, while De Minaur’s relentless pressure could be the perfect test for Riedi’s rising talent. If there’s a common thread, it’s the importance of mental fortitude and serve-return exchanges in this stage of the tournament.
Summary
Two compelling bouts on Monday will determine the remaining quarterfinal lineup, with Rublev favored to edge Auger-Aliassime and De Minaur expected to roll past the breakout contender Riedi. Either way, fans are in for high-quality tennis as the Open moves closer to its business end.