At the 2025 US Open, 16 players made it through qualifying to secure a spot in the main draw, as is standard across the Majors. While most qualifiers rarely go deep, several have shown the potential to defy the odds on hard courts.
Qualifiers and their chances
1) Francesco Passaro (ranked 121, peak 89)
Opponent: Flavio Cobolli (seed 24)
Passaro, a clay specialist, has once again demonstrated his ability to navigate Slam qualifying on surfaces beyond clay, having reached the Australian Open main draw earlier this year. Cobolli has previously been seeded in Slams but is typically challenged at this stage. Chance of victory: Not likely.
2) Federico Agustín Gómez (ranked 206, peak 133)
Opponent: Jack Draper (seed 5)
The 28-year-old Argentine fought through qualifying for his Flushing Meadows debut; his Slam experience is limited but Draper is coming off a standout run to the Wimbledon semi-finals a year ago. Chance of victory: Not happening.
3) Coleman Wong (ranked 174, peak 128)
Opponent: Aleksandar Kovacevic (ranked 71)
Wong, at 21, marks a first major appearance and helps end a 71-year gap in majors for Hong Kong players. Kovacevic has had strong indoor and outdoor results on hard courts this year. Given the ranking gap, Wong’s form on big occasions could carry him, but the edge lies with Kovacevic. Chance of victory: Moderate.
4) Dino Prižmić (ranked 124, peak 124)
Opponent: Andrey Rublev (seed 15)
Prižmić has shown early talent, even pushing Djokovic to four sets at his slam debut and then winning in qualifying. Rublev, however, relies on grinding out results, especially against lower-ranked foes. Chance of victory: Not likely.
5) Leandro Riedi (ranked 436, peak 117)
Opponent: Pedro Martínez (ranked 71)
Riedi’s Wimbledon debut was recent, and he has shown he can topple quality hard-court players. Martínez has two US Open titles but generally performs differently on hard courts. Chance of victory: Could well happen.
6) Shintaro Mochizuki (ranked 112, peak 112)
Opponent: Hugo Gaston (ranked 125)
Gaston’s year has been rocky, while Mochizuki has been strong against lefties (8-1 this year). Mochizuki enters as the favorite in this pairing. Chance of victory: On the cards.
7) Zachary Svajda (ranked 143, peak 102) vs Zsombor Piros (ranked 156, peak 106)
In the lone all-qualifier match, Svajda brings recent hard-court form and home-court support; Piros is a solid opponent but Svajda looks like the favorite. Chance of victory: Most likely Svajda.
8) Martin Damm (ranked 429, peak 175)
Opponent: Darwin Blanch (wild card, ranked 409)
A left-handed, ITF-to-Challenger transition story, Damm rode a favorable qualifying draw with big serves, while Blanch has limited main-draw exposure this year. Chance of victory: Moderate.
9) Jan-Lennard Struff (ranked 145, peak 21) vs Mackenzie McDonald (ranked 102)
Struff’s year has been inconsistent, but his pedigree remains strong, evidenced by recent upsets in qualifying and big-match performances. McDonald has mixed results at this stage of majors. Chance of victory: Moderate.
10) Ugo Blanchet (ranked 184, peak 139)
Opponent: Fábián Marozsán (ranked 53)
Blanchet has impressed in qualifying on hard courts, but Marozsán’s overall profile suggests a tall task ahead. Chance of victory: Not happening.
11) Jesper de Jong (ranked 80, peak 79)
Opponent: Brandon Nakashima (seed 30)
Nakashima’s recent form in majors gives him an edge, but de Jong has shown resilience in Grand Slam qualifying and all four majors this year. Chance of victory: A slight chance.
12) Jérôme Kym (ranked 176, peak 123)
Opponent: Ethan Quinn (seed 81)
Kym arrives with solid clay results, including several Challenger semi-finals, while Quinn has been prominent in the hard-court circuit. Chance of victory: Not likely.
13) Lloyd Harris (ranked 353, peak 31)
Opponent: Sebastián Báez (ranked 40)
Harris, a big server, has rebuilt form on the Challenger circuit after injuries. He’s known to perform well against clay specialists on hard courts, giving him a plausible path against Báez. Chance of victory: On the cards.
14) Ignacio Buse (ranked 136, peak 133)
Opponent: Ben Shelton (seed 6)
Buse is a Slam debutant from Peru, a country with only a few previous major players. Shelton has been strong on hard courts, so this would be a notable upset if it unfolds. Chance of victory: Not happening.
15) Pablo Llamas Ruiz (ranked 355, peak 131)
Opponent: Pablo Carreño Busta (ranked 113)
Ruiz earned his spot through a relatively soft qualifying path. Carreño Busta has enjoyed success in the past but is not invincible in this arena. Chance of victory: Not likely.
16)/Wild card and withdrawals context
With main-draw withdrawals this week — Laslo Djere, Nick Kyrgios, Kei Nishikori, and Arthur Fils — four lucky losers joined the field to fill spots.
Lucky losers new to the main draw
– Jaime Faria (ranked 87, peak 118)
Opponent: Jaume Munar (rank 46)
Faria has a solid slam-qualifying record this year and is building a Challenger resume on hard courts. Munar’s clay-centric game makes this an interesting hard-court test. Chance of victory: Moderate.
– Billy Harris (ranked 151, peak 101)
Opponent: Félix Auger-Aliassime (seed 25)
Harris has pursued slam opportunities through luck-in slots, with recent Challenger semi-final runs boosting his form. AAC’s top seeds are tough, but this is a rare chance for him. Chance of victory: Not likely.
– James Duckworth (ranked 107, peak 46)
Opponent: Tristan Boyer (wild card, rank 114)
Duckworth is a veteran with extensive Challenger success on hard courts, though his main-draw record here is limited. Boyer is a Challenger regular who has earned some main-draw wins this year. Chance of victory: Moderate.
– Daniel Elahi Galán (ranked 132, peak 56)
Opponent: Raphaël Collignon (rank 105)
Galán has a history of surprising wins at majors and has experience beating Collignon in Challenger play. Chance of victory: On the cards.
A note on withdrawals and chances
The withdrawals opened up four lucky-losers’ chances to enter the main draw, while the qualifiers represent a mix of youth and experience. Several players among the qualifiers have shown they can translate Qualifying success into actual breakthroughs at Slams, particularly those with strong recent results on hard courts and a track record of defeating higher-ranked opponents.
Commentary and outlook
Qualifying at the US Open is a grueling route that often serves as a coming-out party for rising talents. This year’s field features a blend of seasoned veterans like Struff and Harris, alongside young hopes such as Mochizuki, Svajda, and Prižmić. For fans, the potential storylines are abundant: a first-time Slam week for Wong and Damm, a veteran revival for Struff, and the prospect of several upsets in early rounds that could shake up the bottom half of the draw.
Summary
Fourteen men earned direct qualification into the main draw, joined by four lucky losers due to recent withdrawals. The mix of clay-to-hard-court specialists, rising youngsters, and seasoned campaigners promises intriguing first-round matchups and the potential for surprise breakthroughs as the US Open unfolds.
Overall sentiment: neutral with a hopeful, positive tilt toward the potential breakthroughs and exciting first-round stories from the qualifiers and lucky losers.