US Open Day 4 brings a pair of intriguing men’s matches at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, with players at different stages of breakthrough seasons facing off on the hard courts in New York.
Joao Fonseca vs Tomas Machac
Fonseca is enjoying a breakout year. The Brazilian teenager, who once stunned Andrey Rublev at the Australian Open, has now reached the second round of every major this season and captured his first ATP title in Buenos Aires. At the US Open, he survived a tight first-round clash against Miomir Kecmanovic, winning 7-6(3), 7-6(5), 6-3 in two hours and 26 minutes.
Machac, for his part, has been climbing the ranks as well, picking up his first ATP title in Mexico and cracking the top 20 for the first time. His form has been more up and down lately, entering the Open after a three-match skid but then crushing Luca Nardi 6-3, 6-1, 6-1 to reach the second round.
The matchup looks like a true toss-up, with momentum swinging between the young Brazilian’s steady improvement and the Czech prodigy’s bursts of power. Expect a potentially extended battle; the prediction here is for a four-set affair, reflecting the combination of pressure and push from both players.
Betting note: Total sets 4 is favored at plus money, suggesting a match that goes the distance rather than a quick straight-sets result.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Mattia Bellucci
Alcaraz’s US Open campaign picked up where his season has left off, as he breezed past Reilly Opelka in straight sets in the opening round. The world No. 2 is in superb form, having reached seven straight finals this year, including the French Open, Wimbledon, and the Cincinnati Masters, where he captured the title.
Bellucci’s path to round two has been less glamorous, with first-round exits in Toronto and Cincinnati and a Challenger title in Sumter to his name this season. His best Grand Slam result so far remains Wimbledon, where he reached the third round. The Italian faces a steep climb against the Spaniard, who looks poised to roll on.
Prediction: Alcaraz is the clear favorite and is expected to win in straight sets, continuing the hot run that has defined his year.
What to watch
– Fonseca vs Machac could hinge on each player’s ability to handle big moments on serve, with tie-breaks likely in key games. Fonseca’s experience under tight conditions versus Machac’s aggressive shot-making will shape the tone of the match.
– Alcaraz’s aggressive baseline game and variety should test Bellucci’s defense, particularly on lengthy rallies. Bellucci will need to find rhythm and keep the first serve percentage high to stay competitive.
Summary and outlook
From rising stars to proven contenders, Day 4 offers a snapshot of progression and potential breakthroughs. Fonseca and Machac both arrive with momentum, and their clash could signal a future shift in this next generation of entrants. Alcaraz, meanwhile, appears set to advance smoothly and continue a banner season, maintaining his position among the sport’s elite while Bellucci looks to pull off an upset in what would be a major surprise.
If you’re drafting a positive forecast, the energy around Fonseca and Machac highlights the depth of young talent, while Alcaraz’s ongoing run reinforces the volatility and excitement of major tournaments.