The Tintina fault, which spans 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) across northern Canada, is coming under scrutiny due to a new study suggesting the potential for a significant earthquake. Historically thought to be dormant for 40 million years, recent research by teams from the University of Victoria and the University of Alberta highlights two recent earthquake events—one occurring 2.6 million years ago and another 132,000 years ago—that could indicate increasing seismic activity.
The study revealed that while no notable earthquakes have occurred in the last 12,000 years, this apparent calm may be misleading. The fault is currently shifting and accumulating pressure at a rate of 0.2–0.8 millimeters (0.008–0.03 inches) per year, which raises concerns about an imminent major earthquake.
Geologist Theron Finley pointed out that while smaller earthquakes of magnitudes 3 to 4 have been observed along the Tintina fault, there have been no evidence of large ruptures. The researchers utilized high-resolution satellite imagery and LIDAR technology to examine the fault more closely, revealing previously hidden surface ruptures indicative of past seismic activity.
Remarkably, their analysis showed that the fault should have moved approximately 6 meters (nearly 20 feet) over the last 12,000 years but has not done so, further suggesting a buildup of strain that could lead to a significant earthquake with a potential magnitude exceeding 7.5.
Though this region is not densely populated, risks remain, especially for nearby communities like Dawson City, which has around 1,600 residents. The potential impact on infrastructure and ecosystems is also a critical concern.
The researchers are advocating for continued exploration of the Tintina fault and similar geological features to improve understanding of past seismic events and enhance predictive models for future activities. They stress the importance of further paleoseismic studies to ascertain the frequency of past earthquakes and possible variations in slip rates over time.
This new focus on the Tintina fault provides valuable insights into seismic hazards in Canada, underscoring the importance of ongoing geological research to better safeguard communities in the region against potential natural disasters.