The Horn of Africa is experiencing a significant crisis that is drawing less attention than the conflicts in the Middle East, but is equally dangerous. Following the Pretoria Peace Agreement signed in late 2022 between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), initial hopes for stability have given way to rising tensions. Instead of fostering peace, the aftermath has seen old rivalries rekindled and new disputes emerge, particularly between Ethiopia and Eritrea, fueled by unresolved territorial conflicts.
Tigray remains mired in a political stalemate, with the peace deal’s implementation making little progress. Key provisions such as disarmament of Tigrayan forces, withdrawal of Eritrean troops, and aid for displaced populations have not been effectively addressed. The lack of accountability and trust has hindered the peace process, especially after the recent revocation of the TPLF’s legal status by the National Election Board of Ethiopia, which has exacerbated political divisions.
As Tigray grapples with fracturing leadership along factional lines, the TPLF has found its legitimacy increasingly challenged by its own populace, leading to demands for reforms and accountability. The political rift has only widened with the recent emergence of new factions, including the formation of the Tigray Democratic Solidarity party. The internal discord mirrors broader instability in the region, with fears of renewed conflict not only in Tigray but in neighboring areas such as Amhara and Oromia.
In addition to these internal struggles, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s maritime ambitions have increased tensions with Eritrea and other regional states. His declaration of Ethiopia’s need for direct access to the Red Sea, marked by a controversial memorandum with Somaliland, has provoked backlash from Somalia, Egypt, and Djibouti, reflecting the growing geopolitical entanglements of the Horn of Africa.
As Ethiopia faces this multifaceted crisis, it also contends with rising unrest in the Amhara region and the dynamics of the Afar area, which could become the next flashpoint for escalated conflict. Amid a landscape marked by fragility, disillusionment following the Pretoria Agreement may provide a crucial opportunity for a new civic engagement approach, fostering grassroots efforts toward sustainable peace.
Overall, the ongoing situation in the Horn of Africa underscores a pressing need for a comprehensive and inclusive political strategy that extends beyond military resolutions and allows for collective stability and development in the region.