The NCAA Division I Baseball Tournament is set to begin this weekend, with sixteen regional hosts aiming for advancement to the Super Regionals. While each team is confident in their chances, history shows that not all will succeed.
Several college baseball teams, often overlooked, could unexpectedly make their way to the Super Regionals. Here are four predictions that might shake things up:
1. **Kentucky Wildcats (29-24)**: Despite being the No. 3 seed in the Clemson Regional, Kentucky has a solid chance to advance thanks to a strong starting rotation, particularly with sophomore Ben Cleaver at the helm. Their estimated chance of progressing, according to a combination of metrics from College Baseball Insider, 643 Charts, and PEAR, stands at 26.2 percent, with some models suggesting a 36.2 percent likelihood of reaching the Super Regionals.
2. **Mississippi State Bulldogs (34-21)**: Mississippi State enters the tournament on a hot streak, winning 10 of their last 12 games, including victories over Kentucky and regional host Ole Miss. This strong performance has positioned the Bulldogs as serious contenders, with a 34.6 percent chance of advancing from the Tallahassee Regional, which is among the highest for a No. 3 seed.
3. **Florida Gators (38-20)**: Finishing their regular season with series victories against Alabama and tournament hosts Texas and Arkansas, Florida narrowly missed a hosting bid. As the only Power Five representative in the Conway Regional, they boast a 31.9 percent likelihood of moving on, bolstered by star prospect Colby Shelton and strong pitching metrics.
4. **USC Upstate Spartans (36-23)**: As the No. 4 seed with the best chance of advancement (10.9 percent), USC Upstate could surprise many. Their impressive offensive statistics, particularly a wRC+ of 157, shine brightly in a regional lacking strong pitching talent. They may capitalize on any missteps made by their competitors.
This tournament promises excitement and the potential for unexpected outcomes, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of college baseball. Fans can look forward to thrilling matchups as these teams strive to prove their mettle on the national stage.