The UCF Knights are set to face the Baylor Bears in Waco, Texas, with kickoff scheduled for 12 p.m. ET, and the game will be broadcast on ESPNU. Baylor enters the matchup as a 3.5-point favorite, with a moneyline of -170, and the over/under is established at 60.5 points.
In anticipation of the game, predictions favor the Knights to cover the spread. With UCF gaining momentum following a decisive 45-13 victory over West Virginia before their bye week, they appear ready to compete at a higher level. The Knights boast one of the most explosive offenses in college football, led by a formidable backfield duo of running backs Jaden Nixon and Myles Montgomery. Nixon, despite having fewer carries, has made a significant impact by achieving multiple 100-yard games. Meanwhile, Montgomery has been consistent with a notable average of 14 carries per game, shouldering the rushing load for the team.
The offensive strategy orchestrated by UCF’s coordinator, Steve Cooper, has seen the Knights throwing the ball efficiently this season, with an impressive uptick in their passing completion percentage. Their approach, however, tends to focus on quick, short passes rather than deep throws. Receiver Duane Thomas Jr. leads the team in yardage yet averages around 45 yards per game, indicating a reliance on team distribution rather than a single standout.
On defense, UCF seems to have adjusted well to the rigors of Big 12 play after early challenges. Since their game against Kansas State, the Knights have significantly reduced the points allowed, showcasing a marked improvement.
Conversely, Baylor faces a critical challenge in this matchup, particularly with their defensive struggles against the run. Ranking among the lowest nationally in rush defense metrics, they allow an alarming 36.3 points per game. While linebacker Keaton Thomas has emerged as a standout player with impressive solo tackles, the secondary includes key defenders like LeVar Thornton Jr. and Caldra Williford, who will be essential in countering UCF’s offensive prowess.
Baylor’s quarterback, Sawyer Robertson, has excelled this season, leading Big 12 quarterbacks in passing yards and touchdowns, making him a formidable threat. With a solid wide receiver corps including Josh Cameron and Ashtyn Hawkins, and tight end Michael Trigg becoming a vital target, Baylor’s offense plans to leverage the passing game primarily.
In terms of overall predictions, both teams excel at certain aspects of the game; however, UCF’s effective rushing ability and improved defensive capabilities appear to give them an edge, particularly against Baylor’s lackluster run defense. Despite UCF’s struggles to secure a road victory, their performance in recent games suggests they are well-positioned to cover the spread in this encounter.
As the excitement builds for this pivotal game in the Big 12, fans are keen to see if UCF can continue their upward trajectory and make a significant statement against Baylor on their home turf.