Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee and former President, held a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York on October 27, 2024. Following this event, the stock of Trump Media, which operates Truth Social, experienced a significant rebound in October, just as the election campaign between Trump and the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, reached its final stages.
The stock had previously suffered a major decline, hitting a low of under $12 a share in late September. However, it closed at $47.36 per share on Monday, surpassing its peak from mid-July, which was buoyed by an incident where Trump narrowly escaped an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally.
On Monday, shares of Trump Media surged over 21%, spurred by enthusiasm surrounding Trump’s rally in New York City. Trump holds close to 57% ownership in Trump Media, which has increased in value by approximately $4 billion since its late-September lows, reaching around $5.4 billion at the peak on Monday.
During this time, Trump Media has launched a new streaming application called Truth+, although analysts have frequently noted that the company’s fluctuating market value seems disconnected from its actual business performance or revenue generation, particularly given Truth Social’s limited audience.
Experts suggest that the stock market activity is largely driven by pro-Trump investors’ support for the former president rather than the company’s fundamentals. The enthusiasm from the rally may have contributed to the stock surge, as highlighted by comments from user groups on Truth Social.
Moreover, recent stock gains for Trump Media align with improved odds for Trump on political betting sites like Polymarket and Kalshi, even as general polls indicate a close race. However, critics have pointed out potential manipulation in the election betting markets, with Polymarket confirming last week that a single individual created a large pro-Trump position using multiple accounts.