Former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, held a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York on October 27, 2024. Following this event, shares of Trump Media surged over 21%, recovering losses from a previous downturn in late September when the stock fell below $12 per share. As of now, Trump Media shares closed at $47.36 each, surpassing their peak in mid-July, which was driven by heightened attention after an assassination attempt on Trump during a rally in Pennsylvania.
Trump owns approximately 57% of Trump Media, which means his stake, at its highest point on Monday, was valued at around $5.4 billion—this constitutes more than half of Trump’s reported net worth according to Forbes. Since hitting its late-September lows, the value of his majority stake has increased by about $4 billion. During this same period, the company introduced a new streaming service, Truth+, and saw its chief operating officer resign.
Analysts suggest that the dramatic fluctuations in Trump Media’s stock price have little to do with corporate developments or the performance of Truth Social, which has a modest audience and generates minimal revenue. Instead, the stock is viewed as a means for pro-Trump retail investors to rally around the former president, serving as a proxy for his chances of winning the White House again.
The recent surge in stock prices appears to reflect renewed enthusiasm from traders after Trump’s rally in Manhattan, which attracted thousands of supporters in an area dominated by Democratic voters. One user on Truth Social noted, “Our dear President @realDonaldTrump packs MSG yesterday for the Rally of a lifetime and TODAY, the entire market is UP UP UP!!! $DJT.”
Accompanying the rise in stock prices, there has been a shift in favor of Trump on political betting platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, even as traditional polls indicate a closely contested race. It’s important to note that these betting odds operate under different methodologies compared to conventional polling and should not be deemed as substitutes. Concerns have been raised about possible manipulation within election betting markets, with Polymarket confirming last week that an individual had established a significant pro-Trump stake through four different accounts.