Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is on the brink of leading her ruling coalition to a significant victory in the upcoming snap election, according to a recent Nikkei poll. Conducted over three days, the survey indicates that Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), along with its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, is poised to secure more than 300 of the 465 seats in the Lower House.
This forecast aligns with an earlier prediction from the Asahi Shimbun, which similarly estimated that the ruling coalition would gain over 300 seats. In contrast, the Central Reform Alliance—comprising the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito—faces a projected reduction in its seat count, potentially halving its current total of 167 seats, as noted in the Nikkei poll.
Further insights from polling by Kyodo News suggest that the LDP could achieve more than 233 seats on its own, solidifying a single-party majority. The LDP is specifically targeting a total of at least 261 seats, which would grant it enhanced control over all parliamentary committees and chair positions. A two-thirds majority would further empower the ruling party to override any Upper House vetoes on key legislation.
This election follows a tumultuous political landscape, marked by the LDP’s loss of its Upper House majority in the previous year and a significant defeat in Lower House elections in 2024, leading to the resignation of then-Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
Adding an international dimension to the electoral landscape, U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly offered his endorsement of Takaichi and her coalition, expressing his support via a Truth Social post. He announced plans to meet Takaichi on March 19, stating, “it is my Honor to give a Complete and Total Endorsement of her, and what her highly respected Coalition is representing. SHE WILL NOT LET THE PEOPLE OF JAPAN DOWN!”
With a political future hinging on this election, Takaichi has vowed to resign if the coalition fails to secure a majority. Her high personal approval ratings reflect a potential edge in converting that popularity into electoral success for the LDP. Analysts like Kristi Govella from the Center for Strategic and International Studies suggest that a decisive victory would highlight Takaichi’s personal appeal, rather than any significant improvement in Japan’s economic turbulence since the LDP’s previous electoral losses.
As voters head to the polls, the stakes are high for Takaichi and her coalition, representing a critical moment in Japan’s political history.