Meteorologists are closely monitoring a system in the tropics that has the potential to develop into a storm impacting the southeastern United States. The National Hurricane Center has assigned a 40 percent chance of development, which is considered “medium.” If this system materializes, it could bring heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and hazardous rip currents to Florida, coastal Georgia, and the Carolinas as the holiday weekend approaches.
Recent model forecasts suggest that if a storm does form, it is more likely to occur east of Florida over the Gulf Stream instead of within the Gulf itself. Such a development raises the possibility of significant downpours and flooding along the Atlantic coast of Florida and neighboring states.
Should the system intensify sufficiently to earn a name, it will be called “Chantal.” The current Atlantic hurricane season has started relatively quietly, with Barry recently converting from a tropical storm to a tropical depression before making landfall in Tamaulipas, Mexico. The season’s slow onset has been marked by the latest first storm on record since 2014, with a brief storm named Andrea appearing on June 24.
A cold front is currently moving through the Appalachians and is expected to extend from the Outer Banks to Mobile, Alabama, by Thursday. Cold fronts often lead to the development of extra vorticity or spin, which can create the right conditions for a tropical depression to form, particularly when moving over warm waters, currently in the range of 84 to 88 degrees.
The American GFS model predicts a notable increase in spin east of Florida by Friday, with potential development over the weekend. Meanwhile, the European model also anticipates a system forming in the same region but highlights the possibility of a secondary area of spin in the northeastern Gulf. While the east-of-Florida scenario appears more probable, developments in the Gulf should not be overlooked.
If a disturbance develops southeast of the Carolinas and Florida, it might take on subtropical characteristics due to its proximity to the cold front and other nontropical influences. This hybrid low-pressure system could lead to stronger winds, with gusts potentially reaching 40 mph, which would heighten the risk of rip currents along the coast.
The ongoing weather patterns offer a reminder of the dynamic nature of the hurricane season and the importance of continued monitoring. While uncertainty remains, the situation also presents an opportunity for preparation and awareness as communities in the storm’s potential path keep an eye on developments.