Tropical Storm Milton was reported in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning, with wind speeds reaching 65 miles per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Heavy rainfall is expected, with flash flooding risk extending well inland from the storm’s center. Even storms classified as weaker can lead to significant rainfall, which may inundate low-lying areas.
Satellite images provide valuable insights into the storm’s strength and structure. A well-defined eye, particularly if it appears symmetrical, typically indicates that the storm is strong and not facing significant weakening factors.
Milton marks the 13th named storm of the Atlantic season in 2024. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had forecasted between 17 to 25 named storms this year, an above-average projection. This season follows a notably active 2023, which had 20 named storms, including one early storm referred to as “Unnamed.” That year also recorded only one hurricane, Idalia, making landfall in the United States.
Generally, the El Niño phenomenon observed last season is expected to suppress hurricane activity, thus reducing storm numbers. However, in 2023, warmer Atlantic ocean temperatures mitigated El Niño’s typical effects on storm formation.
As the current season began, the ocean temperatures were not just warm, but even warmer than before, heightening forecasters’ expectations for more storms. Elevated sea surface temperatures may also allow storms to strengthen more rapidly than usual.
Compounding the situation, the diminishing El Niño pattern is likely fostering a more conducive environment for storm formation and intensification. Hurricanes thrive in calm conditions, and a strong El Niño generally increases wind shear, which can disrupt storm development. With El Niño less influential this year, conditions are more favorable for storms to reach the heights necessary for sustained cyclonic activity.