Tropical Storm Ernesto is currently impacting the northern Caribbean with significant rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas as it heads towards Puerto Rico.
The storm’s center approached Guadeloupe early Tuesday morning and is expected to continue through the Leeward Islands in the northeast Caribbean throughout the day. Ernesto has been on this trajectory since it developed on Monday evening.
As of Tuesday morning, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, with higher gusts reported, while moving westward at a speed of 18 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. Tropical storm-force winds are being felt over a wide area as gusts reach up to 56 mph at Saint Barthélemy, located over 100 miles from the storm’s center.
Satellite images illustrate Tropical Storm Ernesto swirling over the northeastern Caribbean as day breaks. The winds and rain associated with the storm are expected to continue spreading throughout the region overnight on Tuesday and into Wednesday.
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands, including the US and British Virgin Islands. The strong wind gusts from Ernesto pose a risk of damage to structures and may lead to fallen trees and downed power lines.
Heavy rainfall poses a significant threat across parts of the Caribbean this week, with downpours expected to persist in the Leeward Islands through Tuesday night, followed by wet conditions lingering into Wednesday. The downpour is also set to begin for the US and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday evening before reaching Puerto Rico later that night. The most intense rainfall is anticipated to end late Wednesday.
Widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches are forecast, with some areas in Puerto Rico potentially receiving up to 10 inches. This could lead to flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in elevated regions of eastern and southern Puerto Rico.
Tropical storm-force winds are projected to affect regions in Ernesto’s path at least until Wednesday night, creating hazardous seas and a storm surge of up to 3 feet for various islands in the area. The combination of heavy rain and strong winds could pose challenges for Puerto Rico’s already vulnerable electrical infrastructure.
In anticipation of the storm, Puerto Rican officials have activated the National Guard, canceled classes in public schools, and expressed concern over potential widespread power outages due to the state’s fragile power grid. Juan Saca, president of Luma Energy, acknowledged this reality, stating that the grid is still in the process of being rebuilt after Hurricane Maria hit in September 2017.
A gradual shift northward for Ernesto is expected to commence on Wednesday, moving it away from the Caribbean and into the open Atlantic, where it could strengthen to a hurricane by late Wednesday night.
The extent of Ernesto’s intensification will largely depend on the warm ocean waters and the strength of upper-level winds in the area. There is a possibility that the storm could reach Category 3 hurricane status or higher later this week.
However, Ernesto’s path may change due to various factors, such as the timing of its northward turn. A delayed shift could lead to impacts on areas to the west, including Hispaniola or the southern Bahamas.
By the weekend, Ernesto could develop into a strong hurricane as it nears Bermuda. While it remains too early to determine the proximity of Ernesto to Bermuda or the extent of rainfall and winds, its effects are likely to be felt broadly later this week and into the weekend, despite its trajectory over open waters.
The storm’s influence may extend hundreds of miles away, potentially generating dangerous rip currents along the US East Coast, the Bahamas, and parts of the Caribbean through early next week.