Tropical Storm Alvin has officially formed in the Eastern Pacific, positioned over 600 miles south of Los Cabos, Mexico. This marks the first named storm of 2025 in the Western Hemisphere, having developed from Tropical Depression One-E on Wednesday afternoon.
Recent forecasts from the National Hurricane Center indicate that Tropical Storm Alvin will track northward as the week progresses, with expectations of modest strengthening but no indications that it will escalate into a hurricane. The storm is predicted to encounter increasingly unfavorable conditions characterized by strong wind shear, cooler waters, and drier air, which should diminish it to a remnant area of low pressure by the weekend as it approaches Mexico’s southern Baja Peninsula.
Although Alvin’s path may not bring significant direct impacts, areas along Mexico’s Pacific coast can anticipate high surf and rip currents as its effects are felt. Additionally, the storm’s remnant moisture combined with an upper-level low may bring showers and thunderstorms to the Southwestern U.S., particularly affecting cities like Phoenix and Tucson, leading to an unusually wet weather pattern for late May into early June.
As meteorologist Chris Dolce noted, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season commenced on May 15, which is two weeks ahead of the Atlantic hurricane season. Historically, while many storms dissipate in the open ocean, there have been instances of significant impacts on land, such as the remnant moisture from Hurricane Hilary affecting the Desert Southwest last year.
With the Eastern Pacific hurricane season underway, meteorologists will be monitoring Alvin and subsequent storms closely. The dynamics of this season may provide valuable data and insights for future weather patterns in the region.