Excitement is building as the 78th Tony Awards approach, set to take place in New York this Sunday night. This year’s nominations reflect a diverse array of productions originating from the U.S., the U.K., Cuba, Italy, Iran, and even South Korea, which is positioned to potentially make history by winning more Tonys than any previous production from Asia.
A statistical model developed each year combines various factors such as awards precursor outcomes and betting markets to calculate probable winners in over 30 categories. With 42 new shows launched on Broadway, and 29 receiving nominations, this year’s competition promises to be fierce, especially for coveted awards at Radio City Music Hall.
Among the strong contenders, “Maybe Happy Ending” is highlighted both for its nominations and potential success, though “Dead Outlaw” is noted as a surprising front-runner based on past accolades from its off-Broadway run. The best play category is tight, with three shows currently holding better than a 1-in-5 chance of taking home the award.
Past performances have shown that the Drama League has a strong track record in predicting winners, having accurately forecasted Tony results since 2013. This could put “Oh, Mary!” in a favorable position.
Notably, Jonathan Groff, with a chance to make history by winning lead actor in a musical consecutively, will compete against Darren Criss, the current frontrunner. Groff’s performance in “Just in Time” showcases his immense talent and popularity among audiences.
Audra McDonald, already a record-holder with her six Tony wins, is favored for yet another award for her role in “Gypsy.” However, Nicole Scherzinger’s nomination for “Sunset Boulevard” indicates a vibrant competition for the best leading actress in a musical category.
In addition to musicals, the acting categories also feature fierce competition, with Jak Malone from “Operation Mincemeat” considered highly likely to win the award for his outstanding dual role as writer and performer.
With design and technical representation from productions like “Stranger Things: The First Shadow,” the Tonys will shine light on the innovations and creativity that drive Broadway. Tight races in various categories underscore the talent present across all nominations, evidenced by razor-thin percentages that separate frontrunners from their competitors.
The anticipation of the ceremony, broadcasted on CBS and available for streaming on Paramount+, is expected to deliver a memorable evening celebrating the exceptional work and talent showcased this Broadway season. With the engagement and support for theater at an all-time high, this year’s celebrations promise to inspire joy and passion for the performing arts.