After Biden’s debate performance, the presidential race remains unchanged
The presidential race remains statistically tied despite President Biden’s poor debate performance two weeks ago, according to a new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.
Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, conducted before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. However, Biden’s lead diminishes when third-party candidates are introduced, with Trump holding a narrow advantage of 43% to 42%.
These differences are not statistically significant due to the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could vary by 3 points either way.
The poll also revealed that no other mainstream Democrat considered as a potential replacement for Biden performs better than he does.
The results highlight the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both major parties’ presumptive nominees have significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed maintain negative opinions of both Biden and Trump, with many believing neither should be on the ballot.
“This is an unpleasant rematch with two unpopular people,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “But Biden gets points for honesty and character, leading to a lot of canceling out.”
Nearly two-thirds of the surveyed 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president, including almost 4 in 10 Democrats.
However, the survey found that by a 2-to-1 margin, 68% to 32%, people are more concerned about having a president who doesn’t tell the truth than one who might be too old to serve.
A majority said Biden has the character to be president (52%), while a majority said Trump does not (56%).
Nonetheless, nearly 6 in 10 believe Trump will win, including a quarter of Democrats. National polls are less significant than those in key swing states, which lean more conservative compared to the national average due to Democratic votes being concentrated on the coasts.
A race likely to be decided on the margins
Since the debate, polls show Biden slipping a couple of points, but pollsters generally say it takes a few weeks for public opinion to stabilize after a major political event, and the changes have been within the margin of error.
Although some Democratic leaders have called for Biden to step aside — and many are worried about his chances — there has been significant pushback from many rank-and-file voters on the left. They perceive unbalanced media scrutiny of Biden’s flaws compared to Trump’s.
Politicians, known for being good political weathervanes with their high-quality polling, have noted that several Democratic House members advocating for Biden to exit the race are from competitive swing districts.
Third parties pull younger voters, Biden doing better with those most likely to vote
When third parties are included, Trump and Biden are statistically tied, with Trump at 43% and Biden at 42%.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drew 8% support, tied for the lowest since Marist began including him in the survey in April. Independent candidate Cornel West received 3%, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein garnered 2%.
A significant concern for Biden is younger voters, as he drops 13 points with Gen Z/Millennials when third-party candidates are factored in.
One in five Gen Z/Millennials chooses a third-party candidate when offered, higher than any other age group. However, they are the least likely age group to say they are definitely going to vote.
Biden is supported by high-propensity voters. This marks a change from past elections, where low-turnout elections were thought to favor Republicans.
Trump and Biden are tied, 45% to 45%, among voters who say they are definitely voting. However, Biden is performing better with older voters and white voters with college degrees than in 2020, groups that traditionally have high participation rates.
Biden’s overall approval rating is 43%, but it jumps to 47% among those who are definitely voting.
If not Biden, who else?
This question may explain why more Democratic officials have not called for Biden to step aside.
Currently, no other Democrat tested performs better, and all are statistically tied with Trump.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the most likely successor if Biden steps down, garners 50% compared to 49% for Trump. California Gov. Gavin Newsom mirrors Biden at 50% to 48% over Trump. Trump and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer are tied at 49%.
There is no clear Democratic alternative, although Democrats calling for Biden to step aside argue that these candidates could better articulate their case and the party’s platform.
Pollsters expect Trump to receive a bounce from the Republican convention, typically seen in the days and weeks following a convention. This could prompt another round of Democratic concerns and calls for Biden to step down leading up to the Democrats’ convention in Chicago in August.
The survey of 1,309 adults was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday via phone, text, and online in both English and Spanish. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.