Frances Tiafoe is favored to win the opening round of the US Open Men’s Singles 2025 against Yoshihito Nishioka, according to updated simulations from Dimers’ tennis model.
Key predictions and odds
– Win probability: Tiafoe 89% to defeat Nishioka
– First-set probability: Tiafoe 81% to win the first set
– Nishioka spread: Nishioka is a +7.5 games underdog with about a 53% chance to cover the spread
– Total games: Under 33.5 games has a 57% chance to hit
– Moneyline: Tiafoe -901; Nishioka +680
– First set odds: Tiafoe -400; Nishioka +300
– Game spread: Tiafoe +7.5 at -122; Nishioka -7.5 at -110
– Total games: Over/Under 33.5 at both -115
Match timing
– Date and time: Monday, August 25, 2025, around 3:05 PM ET
Context and method
– The projections come from a machine-learning model that simulated the match 10,000 times to generate win probabilities and betting insights.
What it means for bettors and fans
– The model strongly favors Tiafoe, with a high likelihood of winning and a strong chance to take the first set. If you’re looking for betting angles, the under 33.5 games and Tiafoe’s strong first-set expectation are notable values, though the spread and moneyline reflect the scale of Tiafoe’s favorite status.
– The predictions reflect an upward trend for Tiafoe, suggesting a potentially smooth start to his US Open campaign. A confident performance in the first round could set a positive tone for his tournament run.
Additional notes
– The article highlights ongoing interest in tennis betting markets and references broader analyses of betting trends in the sport.
– As always, bettors should consider responsible gambling guidelines and verify odds before placing bets.
Summary
Frances Tiafoe enters the US Open 2025 first round as the clear favorite against Yoshihito Nishioka, with an 89% predicted chance to win and a high likelihood of winning the first set. The match is scheduled for Monday, August 25, 2025, at 3:05 PM ET. The model also points to potential value in the under of total games and Nishioka’s spread coverage, though the overall betting framework strongly favors Tiafoe. A positive, confident start from Tiafoe could foretell a strong tournament run.