Nevada at No. 2 Penn State: Three keys to victory and prediction
The Nevada Wolf Pack travel to State College to take on the defending Big Ten powerhouse Penn State Nittany Lions in a late-week matchup. Nevada is coming in winless in the 2025 season opener, while Penn State enters as a top-ranked program aiming to extend its home dominance. The game is set for Saturday at Beaver Stadium, a venue known for its 106,572-seat capacity, with kickoff slated for 12:30 p.m. Pacific time. The game will be aired on CBS and available in the San Francisco Bay Area via 105.7 FM, and streamed on Paramount+. Betting lines list Penn State as a large favorite at roughly 43 points, with an over-under of 56.5. The series all-time is 0-0, as this is the first matchup between the programs.
Three keys to the game
1. Establish a 4.0+ yard-per-carry rushing attack
Nevada has had trouble against Big Ten foes in recent trips, getting shut out on the ground in losses to Minnesota (27-0 in 2024) and Iowa (2022). Those games featured under 70 rushing yards and a combined 1.9 yards per carry for the Wolf Pack. Penn State counters with an elite defensive front led by tackle Zane Durant, a preseason All-American, and edge Dani Dennis-Sutton, plus a strong linebacking corps. If Nevada can average at least four yards per rushing attempt, it can chew clock and limit Penn State’s possessions. It won’t be easy, as the Nittany Lions allowed just 3.1 yards per carry last season and surrendered only 10 rushing touchdowns across 16 games.
2. Create and protect a plus-two turnover margin
For an underdog to pull off a major upset, winning the turnover battle is essential. Penn State finished last season with a substantial plus-11 turnover margin, though it had two games with a minus-two margin. If Nevada can capitalize on opportunities and generate takeaways, it gives the Wolf Pack a realistic path to staying in the game. Nevada was only plus-two in a single game last season (a 42-37 upset of Oregon State), and the team totaled 13 forced turnovers in 13 games in 2024. The takeaway battle becomes a critical factor in this matchup.
3. Limit big plays and avoid defensive busts
Penn State’s offense has grown more explosive, with a strong rushing attack that produced well over 200 rushing yards per game last season and several big-play threats at wide receiver. Quarterback Drew Allar is a key figure to watch as he develops, with the supporting cast capable of breaking long runs or passes. Nevada must avoid defensive busts that allow wide receivers to get open or create gaping holes in the coverage and run fits. By forcing Penn State to string together long drives rather than giving up quick-strike scores, Nevada can balance the field and keep the game within reach.
Prediction
Penn State 56, Nevada 10
Penn State’s depth and talent edge is substantial, and while Nevada will bring competitiveness and a strong effort, the margin in this matchup is expected to be wide. The Wolf Pack will face a program that has historically capitalized on turnovers and explosive plays, and the Lions should maximize their scoring opportunities. Nevada’s best hope is to control the clock with a productive ground game, force a couple of takeaways, and avoid self-inflicted mistakes.
Context and takeaways
– This game represents a significant challenge for Nevada against a highly ranked opponent in a difficult road environment.
– The outcome will hinge on Nevada’s ability to establish the run, win the turnover battle, and minimize big plays from Penn State’s offense.
– While the Lion defense is formidable, there are opportunities for the Wolf Pack if they can execute their game plan and keep the pace slow and methodical.
What to watch
– Nevada’s running attack effectiveness and whether it can sustain drives.
– The defensive discipline of Nevada in preventing explosive plays by Penn State.
– Penn State’s early game rhythm on offense and how well Drew Allar distributes the ball to his playmakers.
Summary
The matchup offers a classic power-versus-speed storyline: Penn State’s depth and talent against Nevada’s need to control the clock and create takeaways. If Nevada can establish a steady ground game, force a couple of turnovers, and avoid costly errors, they could keep the game within striking distance for a portion of the contest. More likely, however, Penn State’s combination of physicality and big-play capability projects to an emphatic home win.
Additional comments
– A strong showing by Nevada could provide a spark for the program as it heads into a demanding schedule, highlighting the development of its rushing attack and defensive discipline.
– For Penn State, this game serves as a test of depth and focus as it scales up competition and prepares for a challenging conference slate later in the season.