Financial markets around the world are increasingly open to the idea that former President Donald Trump might secure a second term in the White House. This shift in sentiment followed his strong performance against President Joe Biden on the debate stage and surviving an assassination attempt.
The anticipation of what some call the “Trump Trade” is building momentum, with investors bracing for the potential economic and market impacts that Trump’s second presidency might bring.
What is the Trump Trade?
The Trump Trade refers to market behavior and investor strategies in anticipation of a second Trump administration. Known for his business-friendly policies during his first term, Trump championed initiatives beneficial to corporate interests. One notable achievement was the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, which lowered the federal corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%. According to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, this law allowed numerous companies to benefit from significantly reduced effective tax rates, with several prominent firms paying less than 5% between 2018 and 2022.
During a June meeting with about 100 business leaders, including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and Apple chief Tim Cook, Trump pledged to reduce the corporate tax rate further to 20%. He also promised to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent and to extend tax reductions for individuals and small businesses.
A second Trump presidency would likely bring about looser regulations and higher tariffs on foreign imports. After President Biden increased tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, Trump advocated for similar measures on various other products. In his first 100 days during his initial term, Trump rolled back multiple consumer and labor protection bills, such as the Fair Pay and Safe Workplaces Act, and rescinded regulations across different sectors, including food safety and environmental rules.
Who are the winners?
Likely beneficiaries of another Trump term include healthcare, banking, cryptocurrency, and oil stocks. Trump has recently positioned himself as a proponent of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, declaring himself the pro-crypto candidate. His campaign now accepts donations in Bitcoin, Ether, Dogecoin, Solana, and others. Trump has expressed a desire for Bitcoin mining to be based entirely in the U.S. and is scheduled to speak at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville later this month.
The oil industry, having supported Trump in both his 2020 and 2024 campaigns, also stands to gain. Trump reportedly offered to reverse Biden’s pro-environment and electric vehicle policies in exchange for $1 billion in campaign contributions.
Goldman Sachs has identified 34 stocks, including telecommunications firms like Charter Communications and T-Mobile, retailers like Target and Lowe’s, and financial giant Wells Fargo, which could outperform during a Trump presidency due to their U.S.-centric revenue models.
Tesla is another potential winner. Despite Trump’s criticism of electric vehicles, Tesla CEO Elon Musk endorsed him after the assassination attempt. Musk has reportedly been collaborating with Trump in recent months and made a significant donation to a pro-Trump political action committee. Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, views a Trump presidency as “bullish” for Tesla’s stock but negative for the broader EV sector.
Trump Media and Technology Group, which owns Trump’s social media platform Truth Social, would also likely see significant gains. The company often experiences sharp stock movements based on news related to Trump.
Who are the losers?
Clean energy companies, especially those focused on solar power, and businesses heavily reliant on international trade or foreign-based but operating in the U.S., could suffer under a second Trump presidency.
Trump has been critical of clean energy and the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, which provides tax incentives for solar panel installation and EV purchases. If these incentives are removed, solar and EV industries might face difficulties.
The Invesco Solar ETF and SolarEdge Technologies stock recently declined, partly due to the increased likelihood of a Trump victory. SolarEdge also announced its second round of layoffs this year, citing market downturns. Other solar stocks, including SunPower, First Solar, and SunRun, also dropped.
Danish companies Vestas Wind Systems and Ørsted A/S, major players in wind power, saw their stocks fall after Trump reiterated his pledge to halt offshore wind projects on his first day in office. Trump has falsely claimed that wind turbines cause cancer, emit harmful fumes, and disrupt marine life.
In summary, a second Trump presidency is expected to create significant shifts in the financial markets, with clear winners and losers emerging based on his policies and regulatory changes.