A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable shift in the prescription patterns of GLP-1 medications. The study indicates that the proportion of individuals without diabetes receiving these drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for individuals with diabetes are on the decline.
The trend raises alarms about potential shortages of these essential treatments. GLP-1 drugs function by imitating a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and diminishes appetite. Initially approved for type 2 diabetes management, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 by approving Wegovy for weight loss purposes.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, two key producers of GLP-1 medications—including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—are struggling to meet the growing demand for these products.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and affiliated institutions examined the medical records of 45 million American adults who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% by 2023. Concurrently, the share of new users without diabetes climbed from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The analysis utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not provide a fully representative national picture. Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their effective appetite suppression, enabling users to achieve weight loss of up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has led to challenges for patients attempting to fill their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could surpass $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that about 31.5 million people in the U.S.—roughly 9% of the population—will adopt these medications by 2035.