A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to people without diabetes, while the number of prescriptions for diabetes patients is declining.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, following the FDA’s approval in 2021 of Wegovy for weight loss, demand for these drugs surged. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in meeting this growing demand, prompting concerns about potential medication shortages.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, highlighted the implications of the shift, stating that more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, a major public health issue. However, this trend raises concerns about ensuring that diabetes patients continue to have access to necessary treatments.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these medications have placed Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but have also contributed to challenges in ensuring prescriptions are filled for all patients. Both companies have invested heavily to increase their production capabilities.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of around 31.5 million people in the U.S. — roughly 9% of the population — by 2035.