The future of weight loss drugs may not actually lie in weight loss alone. According to Wall Street Journal pharma reporter Peter Loftus, the growth of GLP-1 drug sales will likely be driven by new medical applications for these treatments.
Novo Nordisk, which manufactures Ozempic and Wegovy, and Eli Lilly, the producer of Mounjaro and Zepbound, currently lead the GLP-1 market. These drugs mimic a gut hormone that controls blood sugar and curbs appetite. Initially used to treat Type 2 diabetes, their use has expanded to address obesity.
However, with some insurers hesitant to cover the costs of these treatments solely for obesity—costing up to $1,300 per month—pharmaceutical companies are exploring broader medical uses. Research is being conducted to assess their potential in treating heart, kidney, and liver diseases, which could enhance insurance coverage. These efforts are beginning to show results.
In March, the FDA approved Wegovy for reducing heart risks in adults who are obese or overweight, making it accessible to about 3 million more Americans through Medicare. BMO Capital Markets analysts project that this expanded use could generate an additional $3.2 billion in annual sales for Novo Nordisk.
Eli Lilly announced in April that late-stage clinical trials found the drug behind Zepbound to be effective in alleviating sleep apnea in patients with obesity. The company plans to seek FDA approval to expand the drug’s use to include this condition, which Jefferies analysts estimate could boost annual sales by $5 billion.
Derek Asay, senior vice president of value and access at Eli Lilly, emphasized, “It builds this wall of evidence. It helps give that reason to believe there’s more than weight loss here.”
Unrelenting demand for these drugs has catapulted Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to be among the largest pharma companies globally, by market capitalization. The high demand has even led to ongoing shortages and contributed to Denmark’s GDP growth last year.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for these drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030.