As the government shutdown draws closer to a resolution, the lingering effects on air travel may haunt passengers long afterward, threatening to disrupt holiday plans for months, if not years. While a deal remains elusive, airlines are required to adhere to a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) emergency order, which mandates a gradual reduction of flight capacity at 40 major U.S. airports, capped at 10%. From Tuesday, airlines will implement a 6% capacity reduction, necessitating cancellations of flights at least seven days in advance.
Eash Sundaram, former chief digital and technology officer at JetBlue Airways and now president of Utpata Ventures, highlighted the complexities airlines will face in managing these cancellations, stating that random reductions will burden operations. He noted that airlines might struggle for a couple of weeks before beginning a recovery phase.
Pilot and aviation consultant Kit Darby emphasized that if air traffic controllers resume work soon, airlines could take one to two weeks to bounce back. However, lingering political negotiations mean any delay beyond this week could jeopardize full recovery just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday, one of the busiest travel periods of the year.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that even if the government reopens, not all controllers may return immediately. Those who continued working during the shutdown will face delays in receiving back pay, which could lead some to seek alternative employment. Nick Daniels, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, indicated that after the previous shutdown in 2019, it took two months for controllers to receive compensation, and many may choose to leave permanently this time around. The rate of retirements has increased significantly since the shutdown began, from an average of four per day to 20–25.
Looking ahead, the air traffic control system was already short more than 3,000 workers before the shutdown. Although the Department of Transportation had touted successful hiring initiatives, the shutdown has threatened to undermine these efforts. The FAA’s training academy experienced an influx of trainees before the shutdown, but uncertainty regarding pay during training may deter prospective controllers from continuing their education.
The implications of a prolonged shutdown are dire. Should negotiations falter, it could lead to a severe slowdown in air travel just as the Thanksgiving season approaches, with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warning that air traffic could dwindle “to a trickle.” If the shutdown persists into next week, air travel disruptions could escalate significantly, complicating travel plans for millions of Americans eager to reunite with family and friends for the holiday.
On a hopeful note, if political leaders can bridge their differences and secure a deal swiftly, there remains an opportunity for airlines to stabilize operations and restore their flight schedules well before the holiday rush commences. The urgency for lawmakers to act could thus prove crucial in averting travel chaos during this vital period.