Support for Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones has seen a significant decline among Virginia voters following a controversy involving offensive text messages that surfaced three weeks ago. Despite this setback, the race for attorney general remains tightly contested, with a recent Washington Post-Schar School poll indicating that both Jones and Republican incumbent Jason S. Miyares are tied at 46 percent among likely voters. This is a notable shift from the previous month when Jones held a leading position with 51 percent support compared to Miyares’ 45 percent.
While Jones’s popularity has waned, Miyares’s support has not notably increased, and the number of voters declaring they support neither candidate has risen from 1 percent to 5 percent. In contrast, the race for governor appears less affected by Jones’s situation. Democrat Abigail Spanberger retains a solid 12-point lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, demonstrating that GOP efforts to link Spanberger to Jones’s controversy have not significantly impaired her campaign. Spanberger currently leads with 54 percent to Earle-Sears’ 42 percent, maintaining the same margin from the prior polling.
In the lieutenant governor race, Democratic state Senator Ghazala F. Hashmi has also gained traction, leading Republican John Reid by seven percentage points, improving from a narrower four-point margin in last month’s poll.
The latest poll, conducted between October 16 and 20 and carrying a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, reflects that the fallout from the texting scandal has mainly tarnished Jones’s reputation. The texts, in which Jones made alarming comments about political violence, were revealed on October 3, prompting significant Republican maneuvering to spotlight the issue and persuade Jones to withdraw from the race.
Political analysts, such as Mark Rozell, Dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government, noted that while the Republicans hoped the fallout would affect the entire Democratic ticket, it appears to have largely impacted only Jones. Rozell observed that the Democratic candidates are still benefiting from favorable political dynamics in Virginia, where trends typically favor candidates from the party not occupying the White House.
Jones, who is Black, still enjoys considerable backing among Black voters, with 61 percent supporting his continuation in the race, contrasting with 34 percent of White voters who agree. However, the polling indicates that 45 percent of overall voters have an unfavorable view of Jones, which contrasts with Miyares’s net positive favorability rating.
As the election nears on November 4, voters primarily focus on the economy as their top concern, with approximately 18 percent of respondents citing it as their primary issue. This interest crosses party lines, with equal percentages of Spanberger and Earle-Sears supporters prioritizing economic concerns. Moreover, sentiments about Trump, who remains unpopular in Virginia, impact the candidates; Jones currently lags behind Spanberger and other Democrats, particularly among independent and moderate voters.
Despite the adverse circumstances surrounding Jones, the overall sentiment among Democratic candidates remains relatively strong, as seen through Spanberger’s commanding lead. This reflects an intrinsic resilience of the party’s support base, even as they grapple with scandals and political controversies leading up to the critical election day.