Tesla’s Robots: A $20 Trillion Gamble or Just Hype?

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Tesla’s stock experienced an increase on Monday as Elon Musk continued to highlight the potential value of the company’s humanoid robots.

In a post on X, Musk stated, “Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year and, hopefully, high production for other companies in 2026.”

During Tesla’s annual meeting in April, Musk had previously mentioned that the Optimus robot would enter limited production in 2025, with expectations of over 1,000 robots operating at Tesla by the end of that year. Currently, two robots are functioning on the factory floor, though the specific tasks they perform have not been disclosed.

Musk outlined a theoretical scenario in which these robots could contribute an additional $20 trillion to Tesla’s market value. They are not anticipated to be available for purchase until late 2025, with prices projected to range between $20,000 and $30,000.

However, there remains some ambiguity regarding Musk’s characterization of the robots as “genuinely useful.” Previous demonstrations have drawn skepticism, such as a May incident where a video showed an Optimus robot folding a shirt, which was later alleged to have been operated by a person out of view.

This would not be the first instance of Tesla using questionable demonstrations to promote its robots. The company initially introduced the Optimus project in 2021, featuring a person in a costume instead of an actual robot.

Craig Irwin, an analyst at Roth MKM, expressed doubts about Tesla’s ambitions, stating, “A sentient humanoid robot by 2025? I mean come on, they tried to launch this product with a dancer inside of a robot suit. It’s gonna be hard for them to catch up to Boston Dynamics. What they’ve shown us is really state of the art for 2014.”

In addition to competition from Boston Dynamics, Tesla will face challengers such as Japan’s Honda and Apptronik. Chinese firms, including Dongfeng Motor and Nio, are testing humanoid robots developed by UBTech Robotics on production lines. Meanwhile, BMW has been utilizing humanoid robots from Silicon Valley’s Figure since January.

Following Musk’s comments, Tesla’s stock rose more than 3% on Monday. The shares have maintained a stable position year-to-date after recovering significantly in the preceding two months.

Tesla is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, during which Musk is expected to provide updates on the delayed launch of the company’s robotaxi.

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