Tesla’s Robot Revolution: Can Musk Deliver on His Humanoid Promises?

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Tesla shares saw an increase on Monday as CEO Elon Musk highlighted the potential of the company’s humanoid robots. During a post on X, Musk stated that Tesla aims to have functional humanoid robots in limited production for internal use next year, with hopes of wider production for other companies by 2026.

At Tesla’s annual meeting in April, Musk mentioned that the Optimus robot would enter limited production in 2025, projecting that over 1,000 units could be operational by the end of that year. Currently, two robots are on the factory floor, but Tesla has not disclosed their specific roles.

Musk has previously suggested that the introduction of these robots could increase Tesla’s market capitalization by $20 trillion. The robots are anticipated to be sold towards the end of 2025 at a price range between $20,000 and $30,000.

However, the definition of “genuinely useful” remains uncertain, as previous demonstrations have not met expectations. Recently, a video showed an Optimus robot folding a shirt, which was reportedly controlled by an operator off-camera. This incident raised questions about the authenticity of Tesla’s showcases, which have included presentations like the one in 2021 where a dancer was seen in a robot suit.

Analyst Craig Irwin from Roth MKM expressed skepticism about Tesla’s ambition to produce a sentient humanoid robot by 2025, noting the challenges of competing with established companies like Boston Dynamics. He pointed out that Tesla’s current demonstrations seem outdated compared to industry standards.

In addition to Tesla, competitors in humanoid robotics include Hyundai’s Boston Dynamics, Honda, Apptronik, as well as Chinese automakers like Dongfeng Motor and Nio, which are utilizing robots by UBTech Robotics in their facilities. BMW has also integrated Figure’s humanoid robots into its operations since January.

Following Musk’s remarks, Tesla shares climbed over 3% on Monday, with year-to-date performance remaining stable after a significant recovery in the past two months. Tesla is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, where Musk is expected to provide updates on the delayed robotaxi initiative.

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