Tesla’s Robot Revolution: Can Musk Deliver?

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Tesla’s stock saw an increase on Monday as Elon Musk continued to highlight the potential value of the company’s humanoid robots. Musk announced on social media platform X that Tesla plans to have operational humanoid robots for internal use next year, with a goal of increasing production for external companies by 2026.

At Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting in April, Musk indicated that the Optimus robot would enter limited production in 2025. He projected that by the year’s end, over 1,000 of these robots would be operational within the company. Currently, two robots are present on the factory floor, though Tesla has not disclosed their specific tasks.

Musk previously suggested that the introduction of the robots could boost Tesla’s market capitalization by $20 trillion. The robots are not expected to be available for sale until late 2025, with anticipated prices ranging from $20,000 to $30,000.

However, the definition of “genuinely useful” robots remains ambiguous. Past demonstrations have fallen short, including a controversial video in May where an Optimus appeared to fold a shirt but was revealed to be controlled by a person off-screen.

Historically, Tesla’s presentations have sometimes raised skepticism, such as the initial unveiling of the Optimus project in 2021, where a person in a robot costume performed a dance.

Analyst Craig Irwin of Roth MKM expressed doubts about Tesla’s timeline, suggesting that achieving a fully functional humanoid robot by 2025 may be overly ambitious, especially compared to competitors like Boston Dynamics, which are recognized for their advanced capabilities.

In addition to Boston Dynamics, Tesla faces competition from Honda, Apptronik, and various Chinese automakers that are experimenting with humanoid robots on their production lines. BMW has also begun using humanoid robots developed by Silicon Valley firm Figure.

On Monday, Tesla’s shares rose by more than 3% following Musk’s comments. Year-to-date, the stock has remained relatively stable after a considerable recovery over the past two months. Tesla is set to report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, where Musk is expected to provide updates on the company’s postponed robotaxi launch.

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