Tesla’s Robot Revolution: Can Musk Deliver?

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Tesla’s stock experienced an increase on Monday, driven by Elon Musk’s promotion of the company’s humanoid robots. Musk announced via X that Tesla plans to have “genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for internal use next year” and aims for higher production for other companies by 2026.

During Tesla’s annual meeting in April, Musk indicated that the Optimus robots would enter limited production in 2025, with a goal of having over 1,000 operational robots by year-end. Although two robots are currently on the factory floor, Tesla has not clarified their functions.

Musk also suggested a hypothetical scenario in which the robots could boost Tesla’s market capitalization by $20 trillion. The robots are not expected to be available for sale until late 2025, with projected prices ranging from $20,000 to $30,000.

The term “genuinely useful” regarding the robots has raised questions, especially given previous underwhelming demonstrations. In May, Tesla faced criticism for a video showing an Optimus robot folding a shirt, which was reportedly manipulated by an operator off-screen. This is not the first instance of questions surrounding Tesla’s robot project; the company introduced the Optimus project in 2021 with a presentation featuring a dancer in a robot costume.

Industry analysts are skeptical about Tesla’s progress in this field. Roth MKM analyst Craig Irwin remarked that achieving a sentient humanoid robot by 2025 seems unrealistic and indicated the company is lagging in comparison to competitors like Boston Dynamics.

In addition to Hyundai’s Boston Dynamics, Tesla faces competition from Honda and Apptronik. Chinese firms Dongfeng Motor and Nio are testing humanoid robots developed by UBTech Robotics, while BMW has been using Figure’s humanoid robots in its operations since January.

Following Musk’s comments, Tesla’s stock rose over 3% on Monday. However, shares remain relatively stable year-to-date after a significant rebound over the past two months. Tesla is set to release its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, where Musk is expected to provide updates on the company’s delayed robotaxi initiative.

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