Tesla’s Robot Revolution: Can Humanoids Deliver on Musk’s Promise?

Tesla’s stock experienced an uptick on Monday as Elon Musk highlighted the promising future of the company’s humanoid robots. Musk shared on X that Tesla is aiming to have useful humanoid robots in low production for internal use by next year, with ambitions for higher production for external companies by 2026.

During Tesla’s annual meeting in April, Musk had indicated that the company’s Optimus robot could enter limited production by 2025, estimating that over 1,000 robots would be operational by year’s end. Currently, two prototypes are in Tesla’s factories, although their specific roles are undisclosed.

Musk suggested that the introduction of these robots could potentially add $20 trillion to Tesla’s market capitalization. However, the robots are not anticipated for sale until late 2025, with projected prices ranging between $20,000 and $30,000.

The term “genuinely useful” remains somewhat vague, as previous demonstrations of the robots did not always meet expectations. For instance, a May video showing an Optimus folding a shirt was criticized for featuring off-screen human assistance.

Additionally, it is not the first instance of Tesla employing visual theatrics to showcase its robots. The company first introduced the Optimus project in 2021 with a dancer dressed in a robot costume.

Analyst Craig Irwin from MKM expressed skepticism about the timeline for a functional sentient humanoid robot, noting challenges in competing with established players like Boston Dynamics. He pointed out that Tesla’s presentations have not shown advancements beyond what was available in 2014.

Tesla will face competition not only from Boston Dynamics, but also from Honda, Apptronik, and various Chinese automakers like Dongfeng Motor and Nio, which are utilizing humanoid robots from UBTech Robotics. BMW has also employed humanoid robots from Figure in its operations since January.

Following Musk’s remarks, Tesla’s stock rose by over 3% on Monday. Despite a volatile market this year, shares have flatlined so far. The company is set to report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, where further updates on the anticipated robotaxi launch are expected.

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