Tesla’s Robot Revolution: Are Humanoids the Key to a $20 Trillion Surge?

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Tesla’s stock experienced an uptick on Monday as CEO Elon Musk continues to highlight the potential of the company’s humanoid robots. Musk shared on X that Tesla plans to have “genuinely useful” humanoid robots in limited production for internal use next year, with hopes for broader production for external clients by 2026.

During April’s annual shareholder meeting, Musk stated that the company’s Optimus project would enter limited production by 2025, with a target of having over 1,000 robots operational at Tesla by the year’s end. Currently, two robots are already present on the factory floor, though Tesla has not disclosed their specific functions.

Musk previously suggested that the robots could potentially add $20 trillion to Tesla’s market value, but they are not expected to be available for purchase until late 2025, with anticipated prices ranging from $20,000 to $30,000.

There remains some ambiguity regarding Musk’s assertion that the robots will be “genuinely useful,” especially considering past demonstrations have drawn skepticism. In a recent incident, Tesla was accused of showcasing a video of an Optimus robot folding a shirt, where it later emerged that the action was actually being controlled by a person off-screen.

Critics note that Tesla has employed flashy tactics to promote the robots, with the project initially revealed in 2021 featuring a dancer in a robot suit. Roth MKM analyst Craig Irwin commented that achieving a sentient humanoid robot by 2025 seems ambitious and suggested Tesla has a long way to go to rival companies like Boston Dynamics, given their offerings appear outdated.

In addition to competition from Boston Dynamics, Tesla will also face challenges from Honda and Apptronik in Japan. Chinese manufacturers Dongfeng Motor and Nio are experimenting with humanoid robots from UBTech Robotics in their production lines, while BMW has incorporated Silicon Valley-based Figure’s humanoid robots into its facilities since January.

Following Musk’s remarks, Tesla’s stock rose by over 3% on Monday. The shares have remained steady year-to-date after recovering significantly in the past two months. Tesla is set to report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, where Musk is expected to update investors on the anticipated robotaxi launch that has faced delays.

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