Tesla’s Robot Revolution: A $20 Trillion Vision?

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Tesla’s stock experienced an increase on Monday as CEO Elon Musk emphasized the potential value of the company’s humanoid robots. Musk announced via social media that Tesla plans to have useful humanoid robots in limited production for internal use by next year, with hopes of higher production for external companies by 2026.

During Tesla’s annual meeting in April, Musk indicated that the company’s Optimus robots would enter limited production by 2025, aiming for over 1,000 robots operational by year-end. Currently, two robots are already present on the factory floor, although their specific roles have not been disclosed.

Musk has suggested that the introduction of these robots could add a staggering $20 trillion to Tesla’s market value. However, the robots are not expected to become available for purchase until late 2025, with anticipated costs ranging from $20,000 to $30,000.

Clarifications regarding what makes these robots “genuinely useful” remain vague. Previous demonstrations have drawn skepticism; in May, Tesla was criticized for releasing a video of an Optimus robot folding a shirt, which appeared to be manipulated by an unseen operator.

Tesla’s history of showcasing its robots has been controversial, notably when the company first revealed its Optimus project in 2021 with a dancer in a robot suit. Analyst Craig Irwin from MKM expressed doubt about achieving a sentient humanoid robot by 2025, comparing Tesla’s innovations to technology from a decade ago.

Tesla faces competition not only from Hyundai’s Boston Dynamics but also from Japan’s Honda and Apptronik, along with Chinese companies like Dongfeng Motor and Nio, which are already testing humanoid robots on their production lines. BMW has also employed humanoid robots developed by Figure in its operations since January.

Following Musk’s remarks, Tesla’s stock rose by over 3% on Monday. The share price remains roughly stable for the year after a significant recovery in recent months. Investors are anticipating Tesla’s second-quarter earnings report on Tuesday, where Musk is expected to provide an update on the delayed launch of the company’s robotaxi service.

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