Tesla’s Robot Revolution: A $20 Trillion Gamble?

Tesla’s stock experienced a rise on Monday as CEO Elon Musk highlighted the potential value offered by the company’s humanoid robots. Musk stated on social media that Tesla aims to produce useful humanoid robots for internal use next year, with hopes for broader production available to other companies by 2026.

In April, during Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting, Musk had mentioned that the Optimus robots would enter limited production by 2025, with expectations of over 1,000 units operational within the company by year-end. Currently, two robots are said to be operational at Tesla’s factory, the specific tasks of which remain undisclosed.

Musk previously suggested that this product could add as much as $20 trillion to Tesla’s market valuation. The robots are not anticipated to hit the market until late 2025, with price projections ranging from $20,000 to $30,000.

However, there are questions regarding Musk’s claims about the robots being “genuinely useful.” Past demonstrations have not always inspired confidence; for instance, a video released in May purportedly showed an Optimus robot folding a shirt, but critics pointed out it was being controlled by a person off-screen.

Tesla has faced skepticism regarding its optimistic portrayals of the robot project, having initially revealed the Optimus concept in 2021 through a performance featuring a dancer in a robot costume.

Industry analysts express doubt about Tesla’s ability to compete with established companies like Boston Dynamics. Craig Irwin, an analyst at Roth MKM, noted that Tesla’s efforts appear outdated compared to the current advances in robotics.

Competition in the humanoid robot space is fierce, with Hyundai’s Boston Dynamics, Japan’s Honda, and Apptronik also playing significant roles. Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers Dongfeng Motor and Nio are testing UBTech Robotics’ humanoid robots at their production facilities. Additionally, BMW has been integrating humanoid robots from Silicon Valley-based Figure since January.

Following Musk’s comments, Tesla shares rose more than 3% on Monday. The stock has remained stable year-to-date after seeing a notable rebound in recent months. Tesla is set to release its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, where Musk is expected to provide updates on the delayed launch of the company’s robotaxi service.

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