Tesla’s Robot Ambitions: Is Musk’s Vision Too Good to Be True?

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Tesla’s stock experienced an increase on Monday as Elon Musk continues to highlight the potential of the company’s humanoid robots. Musk announced on X that Tesla plans to introduce “genuinely useful” humanoid robots in limited production for internal use by next year, with hopes for larger production for external companies by 2026.

During Tesla’s annual meeting in April, Musk stated that the Optimus project would enter limited production in 2025, predicting that over 1,000 robots could be operational at Tesla by year’s end. So far, two robots have been integrated into the factory environment, though Tesla has not disclosed their specific functions.

Musk has previously suggested that the introduction of these robots could significantly increase Tesla’s market capitalization by as much as $20 trillion. While the robots are projected to launch towards the end of 2025, their retail price is anticipated to fall between $20,000 and $30,000.

However, the practicality of Musk’s assertion that these robots are “genuinely useful” remains uncertain. Previous demonstrations have received criticism; for instance, a video released in May showcased an Optimus robot folding a shirt but was later revealed to be operated by a person off-screen.

Tesla’s past marketing strategies have not been without skepticism, notably the launch of the Optimus robot project in 2021, which was introduced with a dancer in a robot suit. Analysts have voiced doubts about Tesla’s ability to compete, with MKM analyst Craig Irwin commenting on the challenges posed by established players like Boston Dynamics and expressing concerns over the sophistication of Tesla’s developments.

In addition to Boston Dynamics, Tesla faces competition from Honda, Apptronik, and several Chinese automakers, including Dongfeng Motor and Nio, which are exploring humanoid robots from UBTech Robotics. BMW has been employing humanoid robots from Silicon Valley’s Figure in its operations since January.

Following Musk’s remarks, Tesla’s stock rose over 3% on Monday. The company’s shares have stabilized year-to-date after a significant rebound in recent months. Tesla is set to report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, where Musk is expected to provide updates on the delayed robotaxi launch.

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