Tesla’s Humanoid Robots: A Game Changer or Just Hype?

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Tesla’s stock experienced a rise on Monday as CEO Elon Musk emphasized the potential of the company’s humanoid robots. Musk stated on X that Tesla intends to have genuinely functional humanoid robots in limited production for internal use next year, with hopes for higher production for external companies by 2026.

During Tesla’s annual meeting in April, Musk indicated that the Optimus robots would enter limited production by 2025, with over 1,000 units anticipated to be operational at Tesla by year-end. Currently, two robots are operational on the factory floor, although their specific tasks remain undisclosed.

Musk previously speculated that these robots could contribute an additional $20 trillion to Tesla’s market capitalization. However, the robots are not expected to be available for sale until late 2025, with a projected price range of $20,000 to $30,000.

However, there is ambiguity surrounding Musk’s claim of their “genuinely useful” nature. Previous demonstrations have raised skepticism; for instance, a May video showcasing an Optimus robot folding a shirt was alleged to have involved an off-screen operator controlling the robot.

Tesla has a history of employing dramatic demonstrations. The debut of the Optimus robot project in 2021 featured a person dressed in a costume performing a dance, leading some analysts to question the company’s capabilities. Roth MKM analyst Craig Irwin remarked that achieving a sentient humanoid robot by 2025 seems unrealistic, noting that Tesla’s past demonstrations appear outdated compared to competitors like Boston Dynamics.

In addition to Boston Dynamics, Tesla will face competition from Honda and Apptronik. Chinese automakers such as Dongfeng Motor and Nio have begun testing humanoid robots developed by UBTech Robotics in their production lines, while BMW has been utilizing humanoid robots from Silicon Valley-based Figure since late January.

Following Musk’s statements, Tesla shares rose over 3% on Monday, stabilizing year-to-date after a significant recovery in the past two months. Tesla is set to report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, where Musk is expected to provide updates on the delayed robotaxi project.

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